China's machinery industry completes V-shaped recovery
2024-07-21 05:02:14
In 2009, China's machinery industry was affected by the international financial crisis, and the rapid development momentum that continued for many years was seriously frustrated. This year is the most difficult year for China's machinery industry exhibition since the new century. It is also this year that tested the ability of China's machinery industry to withstand emergencies.
Review of the development of machinery industry in 2009
1. The total production volume continues to develop rapidly and completes the V-shaped recovery.
With the implementation of a series of macro-control policies of the central government and the support effect of the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry's adjustment and revitalization plan, the domestic demand market for machinery products has expanded steadily. After hard work, the machinery industry has not only effectively curbed the serious decline in economic growth, but the development situation has been improving month by month. Since February 2009, it has taken the lead in achieving the overall rebound. The value added of the machinery industry is the same as that of the same month of December. The growth rate is 13.8% and 22.8%. Comparing the increase in value and the quarterly growth curve of total output value since 2008, it can be affirmed that the economic operation of the machinery industry has successfully achieved a V-shaped recovery.
In 2009, the total output value of the machinery industry reached a new level of 10 trillion yuan, with an output value of 10.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan or 16.07% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of automobiles were 13.791 million and 13.64.48 million, both of which increased by more than 4.3 million compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 48.30% and 46.15%, making China the world's number one automobile producer and new car consumer.
At the same time, the capacity for independent innovation has improved, and major equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction technologies have achieved many important breakthroughs. One year to create two world-class major equipment: the world's first 1000KV UHV AC power transmission and transformation equipment and ±800KV UHV DC transmission equipment, successfully put into operation at the beginning and end of the year.
The machinery industry has made positive contributions to the development and construction of China's national economy and has played a good role in the pillar industries. In 2009, the self-sufficiency rate of the mechanical products market exceeded 85%, and further increased; the contribution rate to the national industrial output value, new product output value, profit and tax growth was 31.86%, 67.58%, 57.91% and 24.01%, respectively. Ranked first in all industries.
2. High starting point, new leap, and output of important products continue to rise
Take four representative and important mechanical products such as large and medium-sized tractors, automobiles, power generation equipment and machine tools as examples. Large and medium-sized tractors and power generation equipment have ranked first in the world in terms of production over the years. In 2009, new progress was made; in 2009, new Cars and machine tools are the first to climb the world's production.
1Automobile: In 2008, China's automobile production and sales ranked second in the world. In this world financial crisis, the automobile industry is the industry that has suffered the most. According to reports, in 2009, the sales volume of Japanese and American automobiles was only about 10 million; while the production and sales of Chinese automobiles were 13.79 million (for the statistics of the China Automobile Association, such as 13.83 million by the National Bureau of Statistics) and 13.64 million. Both jumped to the top in the world. Of course, we should also see that China can only be said to be the world's number one in production and sales (of which nearly 60% of the domestically produced automobile production is contributed by foreign-invested joint ventures in China) and has not become a global auto power. China's auto industry has some gaps in terms of sales revenue and technology development level compared to the world's auto powers.
2 Machine tools: In 2008, Japan, Germany and China ranked the top three in the world with an output value of US$15.85 billion, US$15.66 billion and US$13.97 billion, respectively. In 2009, the international financial crisis brought serious impacts on the production and sales of machine tools in various countries. According to the statistics of the Japan Machine Tool Association (JMTBA), the country's machine tool production and sales fell by about 30% in 2009, and the annual machine tool output value was less than 12 billion US dollars; the German Machine Tool Association (VDW) released on March 17th, Germany in 2009 Machine tool production was down 30% year-on-year, and machine tool production was 9.9 billion euros, but this is better than the 40% forecast in mid-2009.
The production volume of China's gold cutting machine tools decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, while the total output of forming machine tools increased by 6.1%. However, it is predicted that the output value in 2009 is still likely to achieve a growth rate of around 14% year-on-year. It is expected to maintain or exceed the level of US$14 billion for the whole year. In 2009, China's machine tool output ranked first in the world for the first time – of course, this is also due in part to the sharp decline in the value of machine tools in the developed countries.
3 large and medium-sized tractors: In 2007, it was higher than Germany and Japan ranked first in the world. The annual output was 203,100 units, accounting for about 20% of global production. In 2009, it achieved substantial growth, with a production exceeding 370,000 units, and the ratio of total global production has further increased.
4 Power generation equipment: In 2009, it was 111.94 million kilowatts, which means that from 2006 to 2009, its output has exceeded 100 million kilowatts for four consecutive years. Analysis of the 2009 data shows that hydropower equipment, wind power equipment, nuclear power equipment, circulating fluidized bed boilers and other clean energy equipment account for a large proportion. During the year, power generation equipment continued to be produced at a high level, but the growth rate decreased by 12.44% year-on-year. Among them, the conventional thermal power unit decreased by 17.99%, while the new energy wind power equipment produced 4.81 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth rate of 171.89%.
3. Foreign demand shrinks and domestic demand expands steadily
In 2009, the world economic recession, the external demand market shrank, and the development of the machinery industry relied mainly on domestic demand. The domestic sales value of China's machinery industry continued to accelerate, from 6.18% in January-February to 22.16% in January-December, accelerating by 15.98 percentage points from the beginning of the year to the end of the year; however, the export value continued to show a large negative growth, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. The negative growth of the number of digits, which affects the annual sales growth of the machinery industry, is only 16.11%. The proportion of export delivery value in the sales value of the machinery industry was about 16% under normal circumstances in previous years. It has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2008. It was 12.4% in January-February 2009 and further reduced to 10.43% from January to December. .
4. The growth of foreign trade exports has turned from negative to positive
The foreign trade export trade of machinery products grew steadily in the first 10 months of 2008. Later in November, it began to be affected by the financial crisis and turned sharply. The export volume dropped sharply. The monthly export growth rate was the most obvious year-on-year analysis: 25.81% in October, steeply dropped to 2.74% in November, and further fell to 1.44% in December. In 2009, the decline further showed a double-digit negative growth, which was hovering around -25% for a long time.
Since the international financial crisis, the state has adopted a number of measures such as adjusting export tax rebates, resolving export enterprise financing, and vigorously developing short-term export credit insurance. The scope of the promotion is large and the intensity is unprecedented. Since August 2008, China has increased the export tax rebate rate seven times, and in 2009 it has been raised three times in a row. The joint efforts ushered in a turning point in the decline in the volume of machinery export trade: from the growth rate of machinery products in the same month of the previous year, it was -26.44% in August 2009; -17.98% in September; and narrowed to -6.78% in November. In December, it finally turned to 12.49%. Although the total is still -19.25% throughout the year, the situation has changed dramatically.
It is worth noting that the high value-added export products have achieved unexpected results. For example, power generation equipment, exported 18 million kilowatts in 2009, has accounted for more than 15% of the annual output, has already organized the export of supercritical units; 9000 meters, 7000 meters of ultra-deep well drilling rigs also have multiple exports.
In the adjustment of the export market, in addition to stabilizing the traditional export market, the efforts to open up emerging markets have also increased, and the breadth of China's export of machinery products has been further broadened. In the past, the major export markets of the United States, the European Union, and Japan fell by 18.85%, 27.11%, and 22.11% respectively in 2009, and now they have increased their presence in the Middle East [such as Saudi Arabia (-8.54%, the same below), Turkey (-13.10). %), Iran (-2.16%), ASEAN (-11.26%), Africa (-14.69%) and other regional market development efforts, the smaller decline, effectively offset the decline in the traditional market.
5. Product structure optimization brings benefits
Machinery industries have also achieved positive results in optimizing product mix.
Such as the machine tool industry, focusing on the development of CNC machine tools and heavy-duty machine tools. The market demand for machine tools has undergone major adjustments. Under the influence of large aircraft, high-speed railways, special investment in nuclear power equipment and technological upgrading of machinery manufacturing plants, large-scale, heavy-duty machine tools and high-end CNC machine tools continue to sell well, and sales of general products continue to decline. In 2009, the output of machine tools dropped sharply year-on-year, but the output value of CNC machine tools did not decrease.
According to the statistics of China's Machine Tool Industry Association (CMTBA) on 197 key enterprises from January to September, the numerical control rate of Jinchee machine tool output increased by 6 percentage points to 53.6%; the self-sufficiency rate of CNC machine tools has reached 60%. Only about 40%. The average unit price of CNC gold cutting machine tools is 457,000 yuan, an increase of 21% over the same period of last year. It is the result of product structure optimization, reduction of ordinary and traditional CNC machine tools, and the increase in the proportion of large and high-grade CNC machine tools. From the data of the whole year of 2009, it also supports this conclusion: the total output of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 13.6% in 2009, but CNC machine tools were only slightly reduced by 0.5%; and the total output of forming machine tools increased by 6.1%. Among them, CNC machine tools have increased by 16.8%.
Such as the electrical industry, focus on the development of energy-saving emission reduction, low-carbon industries. Power generation equipment actively develops hydropower, nuclear energy and wind energy products: in 2009, thermal power equipment production decreased by 17.99%, while wind power equipment produced 4,098,800 kilowatts, an increase of 171.89% over the same period, accounting for 4.01% of power generation equipment production in the same period (only 2.04% in 2008) .
Prospects for the development of machinery industry in 2010
Looking forward to 2010, China's machinery industry will continue to rise steadily in 2009, with the international economic environment improving and the existing domestic policies basically unchanged. However, the difficulties faced by the development of the machinery industry are still many and need to be overcome. From the perspective of demand, the world economy is recovering slowly, trade protection is upgrading, and external demand recovery is still very difficult; the endogenous mechanism of stable consumption growth is still difficult to form, and domestic demand growth is more difficult. From the perspective of support, raw materials and energy prices fluctuate at a high level, labor costs are rising, and business difficulties are increasing. The foundation for China's economic recovery is still not stable, the development mode is still lagging behind, the structural adjustment pressure is increasing, and the potential risks in the financial and financial fields cannot be ignored. 2010 is a more challenging year for the machinery industry.
Despite the difficulties and uncertainties, there are many favorable factors for the development of the machinery industry:
First, the economic stimulus plan for the 4 trillion yuan expansion investment announced by the state in 2009 will continue to be implemented, and fixed asset investment will continue to grow moderately; encouraging automobile consumption and expanding investment in supporting agricultural equipment will stimulate a series of industrial structure and consumption structure upgrades. The measures for economic growth are still improving and expanding, and the domestic market provides a broad room for maneuver for the development of machinery industry enterprises.
Second, the implementation of equipment manufacturing adjustment and revitalization planning, automobile industry adjustment and revitalization planning, a variety of policy measures to promote product structure optimization and independent innovation capabilities, directly support the development of mechanical equipment and automotive industry.
Third, in recent years, the machinery industry has increased investment in technological transformation, greatly enhancing the independent innovation capability of large-scale high-end products and enhancing the core competitiveness of the industry.
Fourth, the comprehensive strength of the machinery industry and the ability of enterprises to adapt to market upgrading have been continuously enhanced. Many key enterprises have more orders and more productive tasks.
Fifth, the growth rate of machinery industry in 2009 greatly exceeded expectations. The high-speed growth trajectory in December (year-on-year growth in December 2009, total output value and added value were 35.73% and 22.8%, respectively, which laid a good foundation for the development of machinery industry in 2010.
From the analysis of market demand and its own competitive strength, the machinery industry will grow by double digits in the new year. It is expected that the total industrial production value and total profit of the whole industry will increase by 15% and 10% respectively in 2010. The economic operation of the whole year will be on a high level.
In 2010, it was the last year of implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan, and it was also a year to prepare for the 12th Five-Year Plan. Pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, pay more attention to promoting the transformation of economic development mode and economic restructuring, pay more attention to promoting reform, opening up, and independent innovation, enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the machinery industry, which has become 2010. The common goal of all sectors of the machinery industry and all over the world.
Review of the development of machinery industry in 2009
1. The total production volume continues to develop rapidly and completes the V-shaped recovery.
With the implementation of a series of macro-control policies of the central government and the support effect of the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry's adjustment and revitalization plan, the domestic demand market for machinery products has expanded steadily. After hard work, the machinery industry has not only effectively curbed the serious decline in economic growth, but the development situation has been improving month by month. Since February 2009, it has taken the lead in achieving the overall rebound. The value added of the machinery industry is the same as that of the same month of December. The growth rate is 13.8% and 22.8%. Comparing the increase in value and the quarterly growth curve of total output value since 2008, it can be affirmed that the economic operation of the machinery industry has successfully achieved a V-shaped recovery.
In 2009, the total output value of the machinery industry reached a new level of 10 trillion yuan, with an output value of 10.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan or 16.07% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of automobiles were 13.791 million and 13.64.48 million, both of which increased by more than 4.3 million compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of 48.30% and 46.15%, making China the world's number one automobile producer and new car consumer.
At the same time, the capacity for independent innovation has improved, and major equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction technologies have achieved many important breakthroughs. One year to create two world-class major equipment: the world's first 1000KV UHV AC power transmission and transformation equipment and ±800KV UHV DC transmission equipment, successfully put into operation at the beginning and end of the year.
The machinery industry has made positive contributions to the development and construction of China's national economy and has played a good role in the pillar industries. In 2009, the self-sufficiency rate of the mechanical products market exceeded 85%, and further increased; the contribution rate to the national industrial output value, new product output value, profit and tax growth was 31.86%, 67.58%, 57.91% and 24.01%, respectively. Ranked first in all industries.
2. High starting point, new leap, and output of important products continue to rise
Take four representative and important mechanical products such as large and medium-sized tractors, automobiles, power generation equipment and machine tools as examples. Large and medium-sized tractors and power generation equipment have ranked first in the world in terms of production over the years. In 2009, new progress was made; in 2009, new Cars and machine tools are the first to climb the world's production.
1Automobile: In 2008, China's automobile production and sales ranked second in the world. In this world financial crisis, the automobile industry is the industry that has suffered the most. According to reports, in 2009, the sales volume of Japanese and American automobiles was only about 10 million; while the production and sales of Chinese automobiles were 13.79 million (for the statistics of the China Automobile Association, such as 13.83 million by the National Bureau of Statistics) and 13.64 million. Both jumped to the top in the world. Of course, we should also see that China can only be said to be the world's number one in production and sales (of which nearly 60% of the domestically produced automobile production is contributed by foreign-invested joint ventures in China) and has not become a global auto power. China's auto industry has some gaps in terms of sales revenue and technology development level compared to the world's auto powers.
2 Machine tools: In 2008, Japan, Germany and China ranked the top three in the world with an output value of US$15.85 billion, US$15.66 billion and US$13.97 billion, respectively. In 2009, the international financial crisis brought serious impacts on the production and sales of machine tools in various countries. According to the statistics of the Japan Machine Tool Association (JMTBA), the country's machine tool production and sales fell by about 30% in 2009, and the annual machine tool output value was less than 12 billion US dollars; the German Machine Tool Association (VDW) released on March 17th, Germany in 2009 Machine tool production was down 30% year-on-year, and machine tool production was 9.9 billion euros, but this is better than the 40% forecast in mid-2009.
The production volume of China's gold cutting machine tools decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, while the total output of forming machine tools increased by 6.1%. However, it is predicted that the output value in 2009 is still likely to achieve a growth rate of around 14% year-on-year. It is expected to maintain or exceed the level of US$14 billion for the whole year. In 2009, China's machine tool output ranked first in the world for the first time – of course, this is also due in part to the sharp decline in the value of machine tools in the developed countries.
3 large and medium-sized tractors: In 2007, it was higher than Germany and Japan ranked first in the world. The annual output was 203,100 units, accounting for about 20% of global production. In 2009, it achieved substantial growth, with a production exceeding 370,000 units, and the ratio of total global production has further increased.
4 Power generation equipment: In 2009, it was 111.94 million kilowatts, which means that from 2006 to 2009, its output has exceeded 100 million kilowatts for four consecutive years. Analysis of the 2009 data shows that hydropower equipment, wind power equipment, nuclear power equipment, circulating fluidized bed boilers and other clean energy equipment account for a large proportion. During the year, power generation equipment continued to be produced at a high level, but the growth rate decreased by 12.44% year-on-year. Among them, the conventional thermal power unit decreased by 17.99%, while the new energy wind power equipment produced 4.81 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth rate of 171.89%.
3. Foreign demand shrinks and domestic demand expands steadily
In 2009, the world economic recession, the external demand market shrank, and the development of the machinery industry relied mainly on domestic demand. The domestic sales value of China's machinery industry continued to accelerate, from 6.18% in January-February to 22.16% in January-December, accelerating by 15.98 percentage points from the beginning of the year to the end of the year; however, the export value continued to show a large negative growth, from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. The negative growth of the number of digits, which affects the annual sales growth of the machinery industry, is only 16.11%. The proportion of export delivery value in the sales value of the machinery industry was about 16% under normal circumstances in previous years. It has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2008. It was 12.4% in January-February 2009 and further reduced to 10.43% from January to December. .
4. The growth of foreign trade exports has turned from negative to positive
The foreign trade export trade of machinery products grew steadily in the first 10 months of 2008. Later in November, it began to be affected by the financial crisis and turned sharply. The export volume dropped sharply. The monthly export growth rate was the most obvious year-on-year analysis: 25.81% in October, steeply dropped to 2.74% in November, and further fell to 1.44% in December. In 2009, the decline further showed a double-digit negative growth, which was hovering around -25% for a long time.
Since the international financial crisis, the state has adopted a number of measures such as adjusting export tax rebates, resolving export enterprise financing, and vigorously developing short-term export credit insurance. The scope of the promotion is large and the intensity is unprecedented. Since August 2008, China has increased the export tax rebate rate seven times, and in 2009 it has been raised three times in a row. The joint efforts ushered in a turning point in the decline in the volume of machinery export trade: from the growth rate of machinery products in the same month of the previous year, it was -26.44% in August 2009; -17.98% in September; and narrowed to -6.78% in November. In December, it finally turned to 12.49%. Although the total is still -19.25% throughout the year, the situation has changed dramatically.
It is worth noting that the high value-added export products have achieved unexpected results. For example, power generation equipment, exported 18 million kilowatts in 2009, has accounted for more than 15% of the annual output, has already organized the export of supercritical units; 9000 meters, 7000 meters of ultra-deep well drilling rigs also have multiple exports.
In the adjustment of the export market, in addition to stabilizing the traditional export market, the efforts to open up emerging markets have also increased, and the breadth of China's export of machinery products has been further broadened. In the past, the major export markets of the United States, the European Union, and Japan fell by 18.85%, 27.11%, and 22.11% respectively in 2009, and now they have increased their presence in the Middle East [such as Saudi Arabia (-8.54%, the same below), Turkey (-13.10). %), Iran (-2.16%), ASEAN (-11.26%), Africa (-14.69%) and other regional market development efforts, the smaller decline, effectively offset the decline in the traditional market.
5. Product structure optimization brings benefits
Machinery industries have also achieved positive results in optimizing product mix.
Such as the machine tool industry, focusing on the development of CNC machine tools and heavy-duty machine tools. The market demand for machine tools has undergone major adjustments. Under the influence of large aircraft, high-speed railways, special investment in nuclear power equipment and technological upgrading of machinery manufacturing plants, large-scale, heavy-duty machine tools and high-end CNC machine tools continue to sell well, and sales of general products continue to decline. In 2009, the output of machine tools dropped sharply year-on-year, but the output value of CNC machine tools did not decrease.
According to the statistics of China's Machine Tool Industry Association (CMTBA) on 197 key enterprises from January to September, the numerical control rate of Jinchee machine tool output increased by 6 percentage points to 53.6%; the self-sufficiency rate of CNC machine tools has reached 60%. Only about 40%. The average unit price of CNC gold cutting machine tools is 457,000 yuan, an increase of 21% over the same period of last year. It is the result of product structure optimization, reduction of ordinary and traditional CNC machine tools, and the increase in the proportion of large and high-grade CNC machine tools. From the data of the whole year of 2009, it also supports this conclusion: the total output of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 13.6% in 2009, but CNC machine tools were only slightly reduced by 0.5%; and the total output of forming machine tools increased by 6.1%. Among them, CNC machine tools have increased by 16.8%.
Such as the electrical industry, focus on the development of energy-saving emission reduction, low-carbon industries. Power generation equipment actively develops hydropower, nuclear energy and wind energy products: in 2009, thermal power equipment production decreased by 17.99%, while wind power equipment produced 4,098,800 kilowatts, an increase of 171.89% over the same period, accounting for 4.01% of power generation equipment production in the same period (only 2.04% in 2008) .
Prospects for the development of machinery industry in 2010
Looking forward to 2010, China's machinery industry will continue to rise steadily in 2009, with the international economic environment improving and the existing domestic policies basically unchanged. However, the difficulties faced by the development of the machinery industry are still many and need to be overcome. From the perspective of demand, the world economy is recovering slowly, trade protection is upgrading, and external demand recovery is still very difficult; the endogenous mechanism of stable consumption growth is still difficult to form, and domestic demand growth is more difficult. From the perspective of support, raw materials and energy prices fluctuate at a high level, labor costs are rising, and business difficulties are increasing. The foundation for China's economic recovery is still not stable, the development mode is still lagging behind, the structural adjustment pressure is increasing, and the potential risks in the financial and financial fields cannot be ignored. 2010 is a more challenging year for the machinery industry.
Despite the difficulties and uncertainties, there are many favorable factors for the development of the machinery industry:
First, the economic stimulus plan for the 4 trillion yuan expansion investment announced by the state in 2009 will continue to be implemented, and fixed asset investment will continue to grow moderately; encouraging automobile consumption and expanding investment in supporting agricultural equipment will stimulate a series of industrial structure and consumption structure upgrades. The measures for economic growth are still improving and expanding, and the domestic market provides a broad room for maneuver for the development of machinery industry enterprises.
Second, the implementation of equipment manufacturing adjustment and revitalization planning, automobile industry adjustment and revitalization planning, a variety of policy measures to promote product structure optimization and independent innovation capabilities, directly support the development of mechanical equipment and automotive industry.
Third, in recent years, the machinery industry has increased investment in technological transformation, greatly enhancing the independent innovation capability of large-scale high-end products and enhancing the core competitiveness of the industry.
Fourth, the comprehensive strength of the machinery industry and the ability of enterprises to adapt to market upgrading have been continuously enhanced. Many key enterprises have more orders and more productive tasks.
Fifth, the growth rate of machinery industry in 2009 greatly exceeded expectations. The high-speed growth trajectory in December (year-on-year growth in December 2009, total output value and added value were 35.73% and 22.8%, respectively, which laid a good foundation for the development of machinery industry in 2010.
From the analysis of market demand and its own competitive strength, the machinery industry will grow by double digits in the new year. It is expected that the total industrial production value and total profit of the whole industry will increase by 15% and 10% respectively in 2010. The economic operation of the whole year will be on a high level.
In 2010, it was the last year of implementing the 11th Five-Year Plan, and it was also a year to prepare for the 12th Five-Year Plan. Pay more attention to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, pay more attention to promoting the transformation of economic development mode and economic restructuring, pay more attention to promoting reform, opening up, and independent innovation, enhance the vitality and momentum of economic growth, and strive to achieve steady and rapid development of the machinery industry, which has become 2010. The common goal of all sectors of the machinery industry and all over the world.
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