2009 China Industrial Economics Operation Autumn Report
2024-07-29 15:00:55
Since the beginning of this year, under the continuous action of the central government's package plan and policy measures of “maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoodâ€, the industrial economy has reversed the sharp decline in the growth rate from the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, especially in the 6 After the month, with the improvement of the market situation, industrial production showed an accelerated growth trend, the ex-factory price of industrial products rose month by month, the efficiency of enterprises improved significantly, and work on structural adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction made new progress, and stabilized. The situation is basically established.
I. Operation of the industrial economy in the first three quarters (I) The recovery of the industrial economy has become more clear. The growth rate of production has steadily rebounded, and heavy industry has rebounded faster than light industry. In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year, including 5.1% in the first quarter, 9.1% in the second quarter, and 12.4% in the third quarter. From June to September, industrial production growth has maintained a double-digit level for four consecutive months, of which 13.9% in September, the fastest month since August last year. Light industry growth was basically stable, and heavy industry rebounded strongly. In the first three quarters, the added value of light and heavy industries increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.5 and 2.1 percentage points respectively compared with the first half of the year. The growth rate in September reached 11.8% and 14.8% respectively.
Production in the eastern and central regions accelerated and the western region maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the industrial added value of the eastern, central and western regions increased by 7.5%, 8.7% and 13.8% respectively, which was 1.7, 2 and 0.6 percentage points faster than the first half. In terms of regions, industrial production above designated size in the first three quarters of the country reached double-digit growth, with Tianjin, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia increasing by 20.8%, 19.9%, and 19.4% respectively; the industrial provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Liaoning were respectively year-on-year. Growth of 12.9%, 13%, 10.5% and 14.4%; in September, the growth rate of the added value of 14 provinces across the country exceeded 20%.
The ex-factory price of industrial products has rebounded and the efficiency of enterprises has improved significantly. After experiencing a sharp decline in more than half a year, the ex-factory price of industrial products has been rising for six consecutive months since April. By September, the ex-factory price of industrial products has increased by 3% from March, including 7, 8 and 9 months. The chain rose by 1%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. The production and sales connection improved. In the first three quarters, the sales rate of industrial products was 97.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of the year, of which it increased to 97.7% in September, reaching the average level of last year. In terms of efficiency, in the first eight months, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 1,674.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, a decrease of 12.3 percentage points from the first half of the year, and a profit of 6.9% from June to August. The loss amount decreased from 14.3% in the first five months to 18.8%.
The trend of sharp decline in exports has slowed down, and the decline in industrial exports has gradually narrowed. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, including 16% in the first quarter, 15.1% in the second quarter, 13% in the third quarter, and 9.9% in the month of September. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of the country decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, of which 10.1% fell in September, and the decline was 10.5 percentage points lower than that in August; the total export value decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, of which the decrease was 15.2% in September. It was 8.2 percentage points lower than that in August.
Industrial investment has grown steadily, and investment in technological transformation has been actively followed. In the first three quarters, industrial investment was 5.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The proportion of urban fixed assets investment decreased from 44.1% in the same period last year to 41.9%; among them, the mining industry invested 0.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.5%; The investment was 4.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.7%. The proportion of urban fixed assets investment decreased from 32.5% in the same period last year to 31.1%; the investment in electricity, gas and water production and supply industry was 0.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.3%. The guiding and leading actions of the special fund for technical reform of the central government of 20 billion yuan are obvious. From the projects that have been approved and approved, the social investment can be driven by more than 500 billion yuan.
The structural adjustment was actively promoted, and significant progress was made in energy conservation and emission reduction. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, more than 50 domestic M&A reorganizations have been successfully carried out in the industries of steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, equipment manufacturing, automobiles, light industry, textiles and electronic information, Shougang and Baosteel. WISCO, Shanshui Cement, Jidong Cement, Yunnan Metallurgy, Zhongjin Gold, CNOOC, Hubei Yihua, Shanghai Electromechanical, BYD, COFCO, Sanyuan Dairy and other enterprises have further improved through equity acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions, etc. Enterprise competitiveness and resource allocation efficiency. In the first 8 months, the cumulative energy consumption of enterprises with comprehensive energy consumption of 10,000 tons of standard coal and above decreased by 4.51% year-on-year. The elimination of backward production capacity in industries such as calcium carbide, ferroalloy and coking has completed about 80% of the annual task.
(II) The main industrial sectors showed a trend of accelerated recovery. The raw material industry was driven by investment and rebounded significantly. In the first three quarters, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated from 5.1% in the first quarter to 16.5% in September. After April, the monthly growth rate increased by an average of 2 percentage points. Crude steel production reached 420 million tons, an increase of 7.5%. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 18.94 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year. The decline was 4.6 percentage points lower than that of the first half of the year, of which 10% was increased in September. The processing capacity of copper and aluminum materials increased by 18.4% and 9.7% respectively. Cement production reached 1.18 billion tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year; flat glass production decreased from a drop of 0.1% in the first half of the year to an increase of 1.8%. The added value of the chemical industry increased by 11.7% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points faster than the first half, of which 22.2% in September.
The equipment industry maintained rapid growth under investment and policy support. In the first three quarters, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.2% year-on-year, 2 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; among them, transportation equipment increased by 13.6%, 4.8 percentage points faster than the first half; the added value of the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.9%. It was 1.6 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the added value of the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points lower than the first half. The automotive industry continues to maintain strong growth momentum. In the first three quarters, 9.83 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 31.7% year-on-year, of which 1.37 million were produced in September, exceeding one million for seven consecutive months. The new orders for the shipbuilding industry have improved. In the first three quarters, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 27.78 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 65%; the newly-accepted ship orders were 16.92 million DWT, accounting for 70% of the world shipbuilding market, of which the new orders in the third quarter accounted for 65.3%, and the new orders in September The order is 5.94 million deadweight tons.
The consumer goods industry is growing steadily based on the domestic market. In the first three quarters, the added value of the consumer goods industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with a growth of 7.8% in the first quarter, 10.5% in the second quarter, and an increase of 11.8% in the third quarter. The growth rate in September was 13%. The added value of the light industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the export delivery value decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than the first half. The added value of the textile industry increased by 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the export delivery value decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than the first half. Driven by policies such as “home appliances going to the countrysideâ€, the production situation of home appliances has improved. In the first three quarters, the production of refrigerators, washing machines and electric water heaters increased by 16.2%, 8% and 7.9% respectively, which was 7, 3.9 and 1.7 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; air conditioners fell by 10.3%, which was 9.7 percentage points lower than the first half. The company sold a total of 20.83 million home appliances to the countryside, with sales of 38.8 billion yuan.
The electronics manufacturing industry is slowly recovering but still operating at a low level. Affected by the sharp decline in exports, the value added of the electronics manufacturing industry increased by only 1.8% in the first three quarters, including 5.3% in the first quarter, 4% in the second quarter, and 5.7% in the third quarter. The export delivery value fell by 10.3%. In the first half of the year, the percentage of exports decreased by 1.1 percentage points, and the proportion of export delivery value to industry sales value decreased from 68.3% in the same period last year to 63.2%. The output of microcomputer equipment increased by 17.7%, of which notebook computers increased by 32.9%; the output of color TV sets increased by 3.3%, of which LCD TVs increased by 82.4%. Due to the changes in demand structure, the proportion of LCD TV production in color TV production was last year. In the same period, 31.2% rose to 55.1%; mobile phones fell 0.3%, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the first half.
Energy production has basically returned to normal growth levels. In the first three quarters, the country's total primary energy production reached 2.01 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Coal production was 2.14 billion tons, an increase of 10.3%. Power generation increased by 1.9%, of which 9.5% in September; according to the China Electricity Council, industrial power consumption decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points over the first half of the year, of which industrial power consumption increased by 8.8% in September. The national crude oil output was 142 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year; crude oil imports were 146 million tons, up 8.2%; crude oil processing volume was 274 million tons, up 4.6%.
II. Prospects for industrial economic development in 2010 Under the influence of economic rescue and economic stimulus policies of various countries, the decline of the real economy caused by the international financial crisis has basically bottomed out. There are some signs of recovery in the economic development of western developed countries. It is expected that the global economy will rebound to a certain degree next year. . The World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund in October is expected to shrink by 1.1% in 2009 and 3.1% in 2010 (up 0.6 percentage points from the 2.5% forecast in July); global trade volume in 2009 It will fall by 11.9% and will resume growth in 2010. However, the foundation of the recovery of the world economy is not stable. It still faces many uncertain and unstable factors. The main contradictions and institutional root causes of the crisis have not been completely solved. The problems of sluggish consumption, low capacity utilization rate and severe employment situation have not yet been obtained. Significantly improved, it may take two or three years or more for the world economy to return to the pre-crisis level. Some potential financial risks and trade protectionism may bring new shocks to the world economy.
At present, China's economic operation is still in a critical period of consolidation and stabilization. The central government has clearly continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing further enhancement of the pertinence, effectiveness and sustainability of the policy, and will create a favorable policy environment for the next industrial economy to maintain steady and rapid growth. From the perspective of the three major demands, investment is still the main force driving industrial growth next year. In the first three quarters, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 33.4%, and the total investment of newly started projects was increased by 83%. The sustained and rapid growth of investment will continue to drive investment. Market demand for products. Consumption plays a very important role in stimulating industrial growth. In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.1% year-on-year. Under the government's policy of encouraging consumption, increasing social security investment, and increasing farmers' income, coupled with the rigid demand of residents. Support, domestic consumption will continue to maintain a steady growth trend. Despite the intensification of international trade friction, in the environment of restorative growth of the world economy, China's industrial product exports will increase in 2010 at a lower base this year.
Next year is the second year of China's industrial implementation of the ten major industrial restructuring and revitalization plans. With the implementation of various policy measures, industrial structure adjustment, transformation and upgrading, independent innovation and the cultivation of new economic growth points will achieve new results. It will further strengthen the stamina for long-term development of the industry and consolidate and develop the basic trend of the industrial economy picking up.
At the same time, it should be noted that there are still some problems in the operation of the industrial economy. For example, the decline in investment efficiency and the difficulty in maintaining high consumption growth are not small. The problem of overcapacity is highlighted, the pace of industrial upgrading is slow, and mergers and acquisitions and elimination of backward production capacity are facing institutional and institutional obstacles. Some enterprises, especially export-oriented enterprises. Production and operation still face great difficulties.
According to comprehensive analysis, the industrial economy has favorable conditions in 2010, and there are still some uncertain factors affecting the stable development. It is expected that the industrial economy will continue to maintain a steady growth this year.
Third, vigorously promote structural adjustment and independent innovation The irrational economic structure is a difficult problem that has long plagued China's economic development. Under the impact of the international financial crisis, the sharp shrinking of external demand has made the problems of China's industrial structure more prominent. The lack of independent innovation capability has affected the quality of industrial growth and the stamina of sustainable development. While maintaining growth, we must further improve our understanding of the importance and urgency of advancing structural adjustment and independent innovation, and accelerate the structural adjustment and the ability to enhance independent innovation without losing the opportunity.
(I) Coordinating investment and consumption to stabilize economic growth The economic growth model that relies excessively on investment is not sustainable. Since 2003, China's capital formation rate (the proportion of capital formation to GDP) has remained above 40% for six consecutive years. In 2008, China's capital formation rate reached 43.5%, close to the world average investment rate. In the first three quarters of this year, the real growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society was as high as 37.4%, and the dependence of economic growth on investment further increased. From the perspective of incremental capital output ratio (the fixed asset investment in the current year / the GDP growth in the current year), the average value of China has reached 5.61 in 2004-2008, of which 7.58 in 2008, close to the eve of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The level of countries such as Indonesia and South Korea. It is necessary to attach great importance to the problems that may arise from the rapid growth of investment. Relatively speaking, China's final consumption rate, especially the consumption rate of residents, has continued to decline, and the consumption structure has been weak. In 2008, China's final consumption rate was 48.6%, down 13.7 percentage points from 2000, and the household consumption rate fell to 35.3%, both of which were much lower than the world average. On the other hand, the internal structure of investment and consumption is unreasonable and prominent, and the endogenous power of sustained growth is still insufficient. Since the beginning of this year, investment growth has mainly relied on government investment, and private investment has a wait-and-see attitude. The rapid growth of consumption depends to a large extent on policy stimulus, and some of the current policy effects are likely to decline.
Correctly handling the relationship between investment and consumption is an important guarantee for achieving sustainable economic development. On the one hand, we must actively play the leading role of investment in stimulating economic growth, further optimize the investment structure, increase investment in weak areas such as people's livelihood, technological innovation, and environmental protection, and guide the healthy development of private investment. At the same time, it is necessary to study and formulate relevant measures to promote consumption and increase the income of residents, and increase the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth. The first is to reduce the market entry threshold for private investment. For non-natural monopoly industries or competing links in natural monopoly industries, it is necessary to consider introducing a competitive mechanism and allowing private investment to enter. Policies such as investment approval, land, loans, and tax support should be further improved to promote the steady growth of private investment. The second is to speed up the reform of income distribution and improve the social security system. In the long run, the key to stimulating consumer demand is to increase the growth rate of household income and the proportion of household income in national income. We should gradually increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution, protect the legitimate rights and interests of laborers in the labor market, promote enterprises to establish a collective bargaining system for wages, improve the relative bargaining power of workers, and establish a mechanism for steady growth of wages of employees; accelerate a new round Tax reform, implement structural tax reduction policies, reduce the burden on enterprises and residents, narrow the income gap; increase investment in social security and other people's livelihood, improve the level of social security coordination, expand social security coverage; establish a basic housing security system to improve residents' spending power . The third is to promote the upgrading of consumption structure and promote consumption growth. The government's basic public services should be strengthened and improved to increase consumer demand; the restrictions on access to services should be relaxed, competition increased, costs reduced, and consumption stimulated. At present, policies such as halving automobile purchase tax, car going to the countryside, and home appliances going to the countryside have played an obvious role in boosting demand and promoting structural adjustment. Consider extending the implementation period and expanding the scope of implementation. Continue to adopt measures such as financial subsidies and tax reductions to stimulate consumption demand for energy conservation, environmental protection and green products, and guide consumption upgrades.
(II) Strengthening the foundation of economic development with structural adjustment Overcapacity and redundant construction are prominent problems that currently affect the sustained and steady growth of China's economy. Not only is there a serious overcapacity in traditional industries, but some emerging industries also have a tendency to overheat or excess. The institutional and institutional problems faced by mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of backward production capacity remain unresolved, and the role of market mechanisms is difficult to fully exert; the one-sided pursuit of scale expansion and “Langlang distribution†mergers and acquisitions have led to some enterprises not being efficient after reorganization. Under the situation that the market is improving, the enterprises in the steel, automobile and other industries have insufficient power and slowed down their pace; the production and sales of steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum products have risen rapidly, and it is difficult to eliminate backward production capacity. In some areas, high-input, high-consumption, high-emission, and low-efficiency growth models are still used to undertake industrial transfer. The problem of “isomorphism†in industrial structure is prominent, and talents and technology reserves are insufficient. In terms of technology level, production organization, product quality, and management Levels and other aspects do not rise and fall.
Repeated construction and overcapacity have their own particularities and profound institutional background. China is in the middle stage of industrialization, the rapid development of heavy chemical industry, the demand for basic raw materials and energy is strong, some enterprises unilaterally pursue production scale and immediate interests, and some places ignore the resource carrying capacity of resources and simply pursue GDP growth, some industry market access The low threshold and the incomplete recovery of backward production capacity are the incentives for overcapacity. To fundamentally manage overcapacity, we should further deepen institutional reforms and give full play to the fundamental role of market mechanisms. Continue to improve industry access conditions, improve access thresholds for energy consumption, environmental protection, comprehensive utilization of resources, and safe production, strengthen supervision, and hold two gates of credit and land to curb low-level redundant construction and prevent new backward production. ability. Comprehensive use of law, economy, technology and necessary administrative means to form a joint force to guide the healthy development of the industry.
Mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of backward production capacity must strengthen government guidance and policy support on the one hand, and give full play to the role of market mechanisms on the other. Efforts should be made to eliminate barriers to mergers and acquisitions across regions and cross-owned enterprises, accelerate the reform of monopoly industries, relax private market access, and encourage enterprises with high management levels and good business performance to play an active role in mergers and acquisitions. Solve outstanding problems such as taxation, land, debt treatment, and employee placement, and reduce the burden of mergers and acquisitions. Further improve the financial services of enterprise mergers and acquisitions, and innovative development is conducive to promoting various financing methods for mergers and acquisitions. We will create a market environment conducive to the exit of backward production capacity, improve the incentive mechanism for eliminating backward production capacity, and make overall plans to increase support for eliminating backward production capacity. By increasing transfer payments, we will support and reward the elimination of backward production capacity in economically underdeveloped regions. The elimination of backward production capacity in economically developed areas will give appropriate guidance.
Industrial transfer is an important way to achieve coordinated regional development. To promote the orderly connection of industrial transfer, attention should be paid to strengthening inter-regional production technology, management experience, production organization and talent exchange and transfer, avoiding the decline of technical level, management level and product quality in the process of industrial transfer, and preventing industrial transfer. Re-take the old road of low-level redundant construction and blind expansion.
(III) Motivating to accelerate innovation and enhance economic growth Supporting independent innovation and cultivating emerging industries is an important measure to cope with the financial crisis, and is also a strategic measure to inject lasting momentum into the steady and rapid development of industry. It is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the independent innovation capability of industrial enterprises as an urgent strategic task, aiming at the world's frontiers of science and technology and the direction of industrial development. According to the urgent needs of economic and social development, integrating innovative resources, increasing investment in science and technology and talents, and rationalizing institutional mechanisms. To enhance the power and ability of independent innovation of enterprises, and effectively enhance the supporting role of technological innovation in the stamina of economic development, and promote the industrial economy to embark on the track of innovation-driven and endogenous growth.
Continue to improve the enterprise-oriented, market-oriented technology innovation system, support enterprises to establish technology centers and research and development centers, and cultivate enterprises' independent innovation capabilities. First, encourage large enterprises to take advantage of research and development, cultivate technological innovation capabilities, and improve the technological penetration system within and between industries. The second is to strengthen the construction of a technological innovation network system and encourage SMEs to actively carry out applied innovation. The third is to strengthen the construction of science and technology innovation parks, enhance the ability of science and technology innovation parks to gather innovation in assets, resources, environment, technology, talents, etc., and build a common technology and public service platform. The fourth is to organize major scientific and technological research to solve major technical problems that constrain development. Taking the opportunity of implementing major science and technology projects, integrating scientific and technological resources, breaking through the core technologies and key technologies that restrict industrial development, and accelerating product development and industrialization.
The cultivation of new economic growth points should be an important goal to improve the capacity for independent innovation. Vigorously develop strategic emerging industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, aerospace, software, new materials and new medicine. Accelerate the engineering and industrialization of major scientific and technological achievements in these fields, accelerate the construction and development of emerging pillar industrial bases, actively support the development of emerging industries in fiscal, taxation and finance, support product and service innovation, actively guide consumption, and strengthen the construction of talent teams. Strive to create a good environment for the development of emerging pillar industries.
I. Operation of the industrial economy in the first three quarters (I) The recovery of the industrial economy has become more clear. The growth rate of production has steadily rebounded, and heavy industry has rebounded faster than light industry. In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.7% year-on-year, including 5.1% in the first quarter, 9.1% in the second quarter, and 12.4% in the third quarter. From June to September, industrial production growth has maintained a double-digit level for four consecutive months, of which 13.9% in September, the fastest month since August last year. Light industry growth was basically stable, and heavy industry rebounded strongly. In the first three quarters, the added value of light and heavy industries increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 0.5 and 2.1 percentage points respectively compared with the first half of the year. The growth rate in September reached 11.8% and 14.8% respectively.
Production in the eastern and central regions accelerated and the western region maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the industrial added value of the eastern, central and western regions increased by 7.5%, 8.7% and 13.8% respectively, which was 1.7, 2 and 0.6 percentage points faster than the first half. In terms of regions, industrial production above designated size in the first three quarters of the country reached double-digit growth, with Tianjin, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia increasing by 20.8%, 19.9%, and 19.4% respectively; the industrial provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, and Liaoning were respectively year-on-year. Growth of 12.9%, 13%, 10.5% and 14.4%; in September, the growth rate of the added value of 14 provinces across the country exceeded 20%.
The ex-factory price of industrial products has rebounded and the efficiency of enterprises has improved significantly. After experiencing a sharp decline in more than half a year, the ex-factory price of industrial products has been rising for six consecutive months since April. By September, the ex-factory price of industrial products has increased by 3% from March, including 7, 8 and 9 months. The chain rose by 1%, 0.8% and 0.6% respectively. The production and sales connection improved. In the first three quarters, the sales rate of industrial products was 97.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the first half of the year, of which it increased to 97.7% in September, reaching the average level of last year. In terms of efficiency, in the first eight months, the industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 1,674.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, a decrease of 12.3 percentage points from the first half of the year, and a profit of 6.9% from June to August. The loss amount decreased from 14.3% in the first five months to 18.8%.
The trend of sharp decline in exports has slowed down, and the decline in industrial exports has gradually narrowed. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, including 16% in the first quarter, 15.1% in the second quarter, 13% in the third quarter, and 9.9% in the month of September. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, the total import and export volume of the country decreased by 20.9% year-on-year, of which 10.1% fell in September, and the decline was 10.5 percentage points lower than that in August; the total export value decreased by 21.3% year-on-year, of which the decrease was 15.2% in September. It was 8.2 percentage points lower than that in August.
Industrial investment has grown steadily, and investment in technological transformation has been actively followed. In the first three quarters, industrial investment was 5.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%. The proportion of urban fixed assets investment decreased from 44.1% in the same period last year to 41.9%; among them, the mining industry invested 0.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.5%; The investment was 4.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.7%. The proportion of urban fixed assets investment decreased from 32.5% in the same period last year to 31.1%; the investment in electricity, gas and water production and supply industry was 0.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 27.3%. The guiding and leading actions of the special fund for technical reform of the central government of 20 billion yuan are obvious. From the projects that have been approved and approved, the social investment can be driven by more than 500 billion yuan.
The structural adjustment was actively promoted, and significant progress was made in energy conservation and emission reduction. According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of this year, more than 50 domestic M&A reorganizations have been successfully carried out in the industries of steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, equipment manufacturing, automobiles, light industry, textiles and electronic information, Shougang and Baosteel. WISCO, Shanshui Cement, Jidong Cement, Yunnan Metallurgy, Zhongjin Gold, CNOOC, Hubei Yihua, Shanghai Electromechanical, BYD, COFCO, Sanyuan Dairy and other enterprises have further improved through equity acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions, etc. Enterprise competitiveness and resource allocation efficiency. In the first 8 months, the cumulative energy consumption of enterprises with comprehensive energy consumption of 10,000 tons of standard coal and above decreased by 4.51% year-on-year. The elimination of backward production capacity in industries such as calcium carbide, ferroalloy and coking has completed about 80% of the annual task.
(II) The main industrial sectors showed a trend of accelerated recovery. The raw material industry was driven by investment and rebounded significantly. In the first three quarters, the added value of the raw materials industry increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated from 5.1% in the first quarter to 16.5% in September. After April, the monthly growth rate increased by an average of 2 percentage points. Crude steel production reached 420 million tons, an increase of 7.5%. The output of ten non-ferrous metals was 18.94 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year. The decline was 4.6 percentage points lower than that of the first half of the year, of which 10% was increased in September. The processing capacity of copper and aluminum materials increased by 18.4% and 9.7% respectively. Cement production reached 1.18 billion tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year, an increase of 11.3 percentage points year-on-year; flat glass production decreased from a drop of 0.1% in the first half of the year to an increase of 1.8%. The added value of the chemical industry increased by 11.7% year-on-year, 3.2 percentage points faster than the first half, of which 22.2% in September.
The equipment industry maintained rapid growth under investment and policy support. In the first three quarters, the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.2% year-on-year, 2 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; among them, transportation equipment increased by 13.6%, 4.8 percentage points faster than the first half; the added value of the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.9%. It was 1.6 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the added value of the special equipment manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points lower than the first half. The automotive industry continues to maintain strong growth momentum. In the first three quarters, 9.83 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 31.7% year-on-year, of which 1.37 million were produced in September, exceeding one million for seven consecutive months. The new orders for the shipbuilding industry have improved. In the first three quarters, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 27.78 million DWT, a year-on-year increase of 65%; the newly-accepted ship orders were 16.92 million DWT, accounting for 70% of the world shipbuilding market, of which the new orders in the third quarter accounted for 65.3%, and the new orders in September The order is 5.94 million deadweight tons.
The consumer goods industry is growing steadily based on the domestic market. In the first three quarters, the added value of the consumer goods industry increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with a growth of 7.8% in the first quarter, 10.5% in the second quarter, and an increase of 11.8% in the third quarter. The growth rate in September was 13%. The added value of the light industry increased by 9.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the export delivery value decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than the first half. The added value of the textile industry increased by 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; the export delivery value decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.9 percentage points lower than the first half. Driven by policies such as “home appliances going to the countrysideâ€, the production situation of home appliances has improved. In the first three quarters, the production of refrigerators, washing machines and electric water heaters increased by 16.2%, 8% and 7.9% respectively, which was 7, 3.9 and 1.7 percentage points faster than the first half of the year; air conditioners fell by 10.3%, which was 9.7 percentage points lower than the first half. The company sold a total of 20.83 million home appliances to the countryside, with sales of 38.8 billion yuan.
The electronics manufacturing industry is slowly recovering but still operating at a low level. Affected by the sharp decline in exports, the value added of the electronics manufacturing industry increased by only 1.8% in the first three quarters, including 5.3% in the first quarter, 4% in the second quarter, and 5.7% in the third quarter. The export delivery value fell by 10.3%. In the first half of the year, the percentage of exports decreased by 1.1 percentage points, and the proportion of export delivery value to industry sales value decreased from 68.3% in the same period last year to 63.2%. The output of microcomputer equipment increased by 17.7%, of which notebook computers increased by 32.9%; the output of color TV sets increased by 3.3%, of which LCD TVs increased by 82.4%. Due to the changes in demand structure, the proportion of LCD TV production in color TV production was last year. In the same period, 31.2% rose to 55.1%; mobile phones fell 0.3%, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the first half.
Energy production has basically returned to normal growth levels. In the first three quarters, the country's total primary energy production reached 2.01 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Coal production was 2.14 billion tons, an increase of 10.3%. Power generation increased by 1.9%, of which 9.5% in September; according to the China Electricity Council, industrial power consumption decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.1 percentage points over the first half of the year, of which industrial power consumption increased by 8.8% in September. The national crude oil output was 142 million tons, down 0.5% year-on-year; crude oil imports were 146 million tons, up 8.2%; crude oil processing volume was 274 million tons, up 4.6%.
II. Prospects for industrial economic development in 2010 Under the influence of economic rescue and economic stimulus policies of various countries, the decline of the real economy caused by the international financial crisis has basically bottomed out. There are some signs of recovery in the economic development of western developed countries. It is expected that the global economy will rebound to a certain degree next year. . The World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund in October is expected to shrink by 1.1% in 2009 and 3.1% in 2010 (up 0.6 percentage points from the 2.5% forecast in July); global trade volume in 2009 It will fall by 11.9% and will resume growth in 2010. However, the foundation of the recovery of the world economy is not stable. It still faces many uncertain and unstable factors. The main contradictions and institutional root causes of the crisis have not been completely solved. The problems of sluggish consumption, low capacity utilization rate and severe employment situation have not yet been obtained. Significantly improved, it may take two or three years or more for the world economy to return to the pre-crisis level. Some potential financial risks and trade protectionism may bring new shocks to the world economy.
At present, China's economic operation is still in a critical period of consolidation and stabilization. The central government has clearly continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing further enhancement of the pertinence, effectiveness and sustainability of the policy, and will create a favorable policy environment for the next industrial economy to maintain steady and rapid growth. From the perspective of the three major demands, investment is still the main force driving industrial growth next year. In the first three quarters, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 33.4%, and the total investment of newly started projects was increased by 83%. The sustained and rapid growth of investment will continue to drive investment. Market demand for products. Consumption plays a very important role in stimulating industrial growth. In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.1% year-on-year. Under the government's policy of encouraging consumption, increasing social security investment, and increasing farmers' income, coupled with the rigid demand of residents. Support, domestic consumption will continue to maintain a steady growth trend. Despite the intensification of international trade friction, in the environment of restorative growth of the world economy, China's industrial product exports will increase in 2010 at a lower base this year.
Next year is the second year of China's industrial implementation of the ten major industrial restructuring and revitalization plans. With the implementation of various policy measures, industrial structure adjustment, transformation and upgrading, independent innovation and the cultivation of new economic growth points will achieve new results. It will further strengthen the stamina for long-term development of the industry and consolidate and develop the basic trend of the industrial economy picking up.
At the same time, it should be noted that there are still some problems in the operation of the industrial economy. For example, the decline in investment efficiency and the difficulty in maintaining high consumption growth are not small. The problem of overcapacity is highlighted, the pace of industrial upgrading is slow, and mergers and acquisitions and elimination of backward production capacity are facing institutional and institutional obstacles. Some enterprises, especially export-oriented enterprises. Production and operation still face great difficulties.
According to comprehensive analysis, the industrial economy has favorable conditions in 2010, and there are still some uncertain factors affecting the stable development. It is expected that the industrial economy will continue to maintain a steady growth this year.
Third, vigorously promote structural adjustment and independent innovation The irrational economic structure is a difficult problem that has long plagued China's economic development. Under the impact of the international financial crisis, the sharp shrinking of external demand has made the problems of China's industrial structure more prominent. The lack of independent innovation capability has affected the quality of industrial growth and the stamina of sustainable development. While maintaining growth, we must further improve our understanding of the importance and urgency of advancing structural adjustment and independent innovation, and accelerate the structural adjustment and the ability to enhance independent innovation without losing the opportunity.
(I) Coordinating investment and consumption to stabilize economic growth The economic growth model that relies excessively on investment is not sustainable. Since 2003, China's capital formation rate (the proportion of capital formation to GDP) has remained above 40% for six consecutive years. In 2008, China's capital formation rate reached 43.5%, close to the world average investment rate. In the first three quarters of this year, the real growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society was as high as 37.4%, and the dependence of economic growth on investment further increased. From the perspective of incremental capital output ratio (the fixed asset investment in the current year / the GDP growth in the current year), the average value of China has reached 5.61 in 2004-2008, of which 7.58 in 2008, close to the eve of the Asian financial crisis in 1998. The level of countries such as Indonesia and South Korea. It is necessary to attach great importance to the problems that may arise from the rapid growth of investment. Relatively speaking, China's final consumption rate, especially the consumption rate of residents, has continued to decline, and the consumption structure has been weak. In 2008, China's final consumption rate was 48.6%, down 13.7 percentage points from 2000, and the household consumption rate fell to 35.3%, both of which were much lower than the world average. On the other hand, the internal structure of investment and consumption is unreasonable and prominent, and the endogenous power of sustained growth is still insufficient. Since the beginning of this year, investment growth has mainly relied on government investment, and private investment has a wait-and-see attitude. The rapid growth of consumption depends to a large extent on policy stimulus, and some of the current policy effects are likely to decline.
Correctly handling the relationship between investment and consumption is an important guarantee for achieving sustainable economic development. On the one hand, we must actively play the leading role of investment in stimulating economic growth, further optimize the investment structure, increase investment in weak areas such as people's livelihood, technological innovation, and environmental protection, and guide the healthy development of private investment. At the same time, it is necessary to study and formulate relevant measures to promote consumption and increase the income of residents, and increase the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth. The first is to reduce the market entry threshold for private investment. For non-natural monopoly industries or competing links in natural monopoly industries, it is necessary to consider introducing a competitive mechanism and allowing private investment to enter. Policies such as investment approval, land, loans, and tax support should be further improved to promote the steady growth of private investment. The second is to speed up the reform of income distribution and improve the social security system. In the long run, the key to stimulating consumer demand is to increase the growth rate of household income and the proportion of household income in national income. We should gradually increase the proportion of labor remuneration in the initial distribution, protect the legitimate rights and interests of laborers in the labor market, promote enterprises to establish a collective bargaining system for wages, improve the relative bargaining power of workers, and establish a mechanism for steady growth of wages of employees; accelerate a new round Tax reform, implement structural tax reduction policies, reduce the burden on enterprises and residents, narrow the income gap; increase investment in social security and other people's livelihood, improve the level of social security coordination, expand social security coverage; establish a basic housing security system to improve residents' spending power . The third is to promote the upgrading of consumption structure and promote consumption growth. The government's basic public services should be strengthened and improved to increase consumer demand; the restrictions on access to services should be relaxed, competition increased, costs reduced, and consumption stimulated. At present, policies such as halving automobile purchase tax, car going to the countryside, and home appliances going to the countryside have played an obvious role in boosting demand and promoting structural adjustment. Consider extending the implementation period and expanding the scope of implementation. Continue to adopt measures such as financial subsidies and tax reductions to stimulate consumption demand for energy conservation, environmental protection and green products, and guide consumption upgrades.
(II) Strengthening the foundation of economic development with structural adjustment Overcapacity and redundant construction are prominent problems that currently affect the sustained and steady growth of China's economy. Not only is there a serious overcapacity in traditional industries, but some emerging industries also have a tendency to overheat or excess. The institutional and institutional problems faced by mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of backward production capacity remain unresolved, and the role of market mechanisms is difficult to fully exert; the one-sided pursuit of scale expansion and “Langlang distribution†mergers and acquisitions have led to some enterprises not being efficient after reorganization. Under the situation that the market is improving, the enterprises in the steel, automobile and other industries have insufficient power and slowed down their pace; the production and sales of steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum products have risen rapidly, and it is difficult to eliminate backward production capacity. In some areas, high-input, high-consumption, high-emission, and low-efficiency growth models are still used to undertake industrial transfer. The problem of “isomorphism†in industrial structure is prominent, and talents and technology reserves are insufficient. In terms of technology level, production organization, product quality, and management Levels and other aspects do not rise and fall.
Repeated construction and overcapacity have their own particularities and profound institutional background. China is in the middle stage of industrialization, the rapid development of heavy chemical industry, the demand for basic raw materials and energy is strong, some enterprises unilaterally pursue production scale and immediate interests, and some places ignore the resource carrying capacity of resources and simply pursue GDP growth, some industry market access The low threshold and the incomplete recovery of backward production capacity are the incentives for overcapacity. To fundamentally manage overcapacity, we should further deepen institutional reforms and give full play to the fundamental role of market mechanisms. Continue to improve industry access conditions, improve access thresholds for energy consumption, environmental protection, comprehensive utilization of resources, and safe production, strengthen supervision, and hold two gates of credit and land to curb low-level redundant construction and prevent new backward production. ability. Comprehensive use of law, economy, technology and necessary administrative means to form a joint force to guide the healthy development of the industry.
Mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of backward production capacity must strengthen government guidance and policy support on the one hand, and give full play to the role of market mechanisms on the other. Efforts should be made to eliminate barriers to mergers and acquisitions across regions and cross-owned enterprises, accelerate the reform of monopoly industries, relax private market access, and encourage enterprises with high management levels and good business performance to play an active role in mergers and acquisitions. Solve outstanding problems such as taxation, land, debt treatment, and employee placement, and reduce the burden of mergers and acquisitions. Further improve the financial services of enterprise mergers and acquisitions, and innovative development is conducive to promoting various financing methods for mergers and acquisitions. We will create a market environment conducive to the exit of backward production capacity, improve the incentive mechanism for eliminating backward production capacity, and make overall plans to increase support for eliminating backward production capacity. By increasing transfer payments, we will support and reward the elimination of backward production capacity in economically underdeveloped regions. The elimination of backward production capacity in economically developed areas will give appropriate guidance.
Industrial transfer is an important way to achieve coordinated regional development. To promote the orderly connection of industrial transfer, attention should be paid to strengthening inter-regional production technology, management experience, production organization and talent exchange and transfer, avoiding the decline of technical level, management level and product quality in the process of industrial transfer, and preventing industrial transfer. Re-take the old road of low-level redundant construction and blind expansion.
(III) Motivating to accelerate innovation and enhance economic growth Supporting independent innovation and cultivating emerging industries is an important measure to cope with the financial crisis, and is also a strategic measure to inject lasting momentum into the steady and rapid development of industry. It is necessary to accelerate the improvement of the independent innovation capability of industrial enterprises as an urgent strategic task, aiming at the world's frontiers of science and technology and the direction of industrial development. According to the urgent needs of economic and social development, integrating innovative resources, increasing investment in science and technology and talents, and rationalizing institutional mechanisms. To enhance the power and ability of independent innovation of enterprises, and effectively enhance the supporting role of technological innovation in the stamina of economic development, and promote the industrial economy to embark on the track of innovation-driven and endogenous growth.
Continue to improve the enterprise-oriented, market-oriented technology innovation system, support enterprises to establish technology centers and research and development centers, and cultivate enterprises' independent innovation capabilities. First, encourage large enterprises to take advantage of research and development, cultivate technological innovation capabilities, and improve the technological penetration system within and between industries. The second is to strengthen the construction of a technological innovation network system and encourage SMEs to actively carry out applied innovation. The third is to strengthen the construction of science and technology innovation parks, enhance the ability of science and technology innovation parks to gather innovation in assets, resources, environment, technology, talents, etc., and build a common technology and public service platform. The fourth is to organize major scientific and technological research to solve major technical problems that constrain development. Taking the opportunity of implementing major science and technology projects, integrating scientific and technological resources, breaking through the core technologies and key technologies that restrict industrial development, and accelerating product development and industrialization.
The cultivation of new economic growth points should be an important goal to improve the capacity for independent innovation. Vigorously develop strategic emerging industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, aerospace, software, new materials and new medicine. Accelerate the engineering and industrialization of major scientific and technological achievements in these fields, accelerate the construction and development of emerging pillar industrial bases, actively support the development of emerging industries in fiscal, taxation and finance, support product and service innovation, actively guide consumption, and strengthen the construction of talent teams. Strive to create a good environment for the development of emerging pillar industries.
LED Camping Lantern, Rechargeable Lanterns For Camping, Outdoor Security Lighting
Guangdong Dp Co., Ltd. , https://www.factorydp.com