The trend of steel silver ten did not appear to be expected to maintain the shock this week

On October 24, domestic steel spot trading platform monitoring data showed that last week (18th - 22nd), the steel index closed at 4240 points. During this period, the domestic market price of major construction steel products continued to maintain a consolidation trend. The price of rebars representing the Shanghai market in the East China region was reported at 4,180 yuan/ton.

Last week, the domestic steel spot market rose first and then fell, with the rebar main contract falling by more than 100 yuan/ton in 1105. The forward price of steel has played a leading role in the steel spot market. In the early period of high forward price, the spot market merchants followed a slight increase. In the later period, due to the sudden increase in interest rates by the central bank, the long-term price dropped sharply, and the market lost its price support. The price continued to fall.

According to the comprehensive inventory monitoring data of the Nisshin Shinkansen Line, the total steel inventories in Shanghai, the largest steel market in the country, were approximately 890,000 tons, and the total stock of construction steel was increased for three consecutive weeks. In terms of output, domestic crude steel output in September was 47.95 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, which was the lowest level in the year. Although supply pressure eased in September, the output of October increased again.

In addition, as far as the varieties of hot-rolled coils are concerned, the domestic hot-rolled market experienced a shocking trend last week. As the second week after the holiday, the trend of “Silver 10” in traditional understanding did not appear, but the markets in various parts of the country were overcast due to high inventory and low demand, which led to loosening of confidence among steel traders.

On October 19, the People's Bank of China raised the benchmark interest rate of financial institutions, raising the one-year benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to 5.56%. The higher cost of capital in the later period has become a consensus.

The analysis of the Nishimoto Shinkansen believes that the trend of high prices for iron ore, coke, etc. will not change, that is, the cost of steel production will continue to rise in the later period. Affected by energy-saving emission reductions and seasonal inspections by steel mills, key statistics of enterprises' crude steel production continued to fall in early October, and supply and demand in the domestic market will gradually improve in the later period. In general, the interest rate hike has little effect on the current domestic steel market operation.

The steel price policy of Shagang, the largest domestic construction steel producer, will be flat in the second half of this month. The Hebei Steel Group's next month policy and this month's settlement policy will be introduced this week and remains to be seen. My steel network believes that comprehensive factors such as recent credit adjustments, supply and demand, and so on will have an impact on the overall market demand and mentality in the next week. It is expected that the market will continue to be moderately adjusted next week, but the adjustment may be slightly larger than this week. The Shinkansen Shinkansen believes that the current domestic steel market prices are basically around the average cost of the industry, and even if the market price has a correction, the space is very limited.