Steel, building materials industry July data review
Steel : The output was slightly lower than the previous month, and the profitability of various varieties continued to improve. In July, the national crude steel output and apparent consumption were +10.8%/+18.7%, respectively. Considering the impact of the off-balance sheet transfer to the table in the first half of the year, the actual full-caliber output increased by a year-on-year. The average daily output of crude steel in July was 2.388 million tons, compared with June-2.2% from the previous month; the average daily consumption of crude steel was 2.185 million tons, compared with June-2.5%. Net steel exports in July rose to 5.98 million tons, up 5.3% from the previous month and down -34.8% year-on-year. In terms of varieties, the gross profit per ton of thread/hot/cold rolling in July increased by RMB161/393/430/tonne respectively compared with June. At present, the downstream demand investment is stable, and the superimposed supply end is insufficiently affected by environmental protection, and steel prices continue to rise.
Cement : Demand fell slightly year-on-year. Currently, prices have stabilized and stocks have been low. Cement production in July was -0.9% yoy to 213 million tons, and the average monthly price per ton of cement in the country increased by 73%/year-on-quarter to 326 yuan (average price of 326 yuan/ton from January to July, +32.0% yoy). As of the end of last week, the national cement clinker storage ratio was 66.56%/59%, which was lower than the same period of the previous year. In late August, with higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, downstream demand will increase, and cement prices will stabilize and stabilize. It is expected that after September, the demand will gradually enter the price uptrend channel.
The growth rate of real estate investment was adjusted as scheduled, and infrastructure investment maintained strong growth. The investment in real estate development in July was +4.8% year-on-year, down 3.1 percentage points from June. The cumulative growth rate in the year-to-date fell to 7.9%; the new construction started to fall 4.9% year-on-year (June++14.0% in June). It is expected that the investment growth rate will have a slight correction from the first half of the year under the base effect, but will remain high single digits throughout the year (China Gold expects the new construction area to be +10% YoY and investment 7%+ YoY). Infrastructure investment remained strong in July, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.8%, compared to 17.3% in June. Infrastructure investment projects have maintained rapid growth, and local governments are in a lot of cash. We expect infrastructure investment to continue to grow steadily.
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