New energy vehicle market or large reshuffle startup company elimination rate of 90%
On September 12, Li Bin (front left), founder and chairman of Weilai Auto, celebrated the first stock exchange in Weilai Automobile.
Li Bin, the newly-represented car company representative of the IPO, has described the new energy vehicle: “In the future, power-up will be more convenient than refueling.†For Wei Lai, the short-term is at least 5 billion yuan. 1,100 power plants were deployed in major cities. However, Wei Lai's business road for more than two years has not been smooth, and it has suffered huge losses of tens of billions of yuan.
At the same time, the promotion of pure electric vehicles is not ideal. The charging standard is high, the charging interface standards are different, and the charging is difficult to charge. Many supporting enterprises are also unable to make ends meet, and losses are repeated.
Two-and-a-half-year net loss of 10.92 billion Weilai Automobile's stock price plummeted after listing
Although Weilai Automobile has been listed in the US, its share price has soared. As the heat has decreased, Weilai's share price has also fallen, and now the stock price has fallen by nearly 50% from the highest point. It can be seen that US investors are skeptical about their prospects. All of this stems from the lingering business risks of Wei Lai.
As a new car-building force that was born earlier, since its establishment in November 2014, Weilai Automobile has launched the first production car Weilai ES8, and the second product, the 5-seat medium-sized SUV ES6, is scheduled to be released this year.
However, at present, the Weilai Automobile ES8 has insufficient capacity and the delivery volume is far from enough. According to the latest prospectus, as of August 28, Weilai Automobile has produced a total of 2,200 ES8s, which has delivered 1,381 units, and 15,761 orders are waiting to be delivered. Among them, 9497 are orders that only pay 5,000 yuan and can be fully refunded.
Wei Lai's latest prospectus also mentioned that Weilai Automobile plans to launch the second mass-produced electric vehicle ES6 by the end of 2018, and will begin to deliver it to users in the first half of 2019. Weilai Automobile also plans to launch five compact SUV ES3 models at the speed of one car per year. In fact, whether Weilai Automobile can successfully achieve mass production and delivery depends to a large extent on the production capacity of JAC.
In addition, only two years after its establishment, Weilai Auto burned money at a first rate. According to the latest prospectus, from the two-and-a-half-year period from 2016 to June 30, 2018, Weilai's total revenue was only 45.99 million yuan, while the total operating expenses reached 10.742 billion yuan and the net loss was 10.92 billion yuan.
The company sold less than 500 cars in the first half of this year, with sales of only $7 million and liabilities of $500 million. According to the latest data from Weilai Automobile, the company's net loss in 2017 has doubled compared with 2016. In the first half of this year, Weilai Automobile's net loss was as high as 3.33 billion yuan, and it is expected to remain in a loss for a long time. In fact, Wei Lai's development track has many similarities with Tesla. Tesla's burning, loss, and insufficient production capacity are currently being experienced.
Local automakers are “difficultâ€
In fact, Wei’s “difficult situation†is not a family’s difficulties. In Chongqing, despite encouraging the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, consumers will buy financial subsidies for the purchase of new vehicles or construction of charging piles, but the actual promotion still faces many “obstructionsâ€.
Charging "drags" makes the sales of new energy vehicles manufacturers not ideal. The sales staff of many 4S stores in Chongqing bluntly said that the main models currently sold are still fuel vehicles. Although new energy vehicles are the trend of the times, overall, the development of new energy vehicles is still in its infancy, and at least in the next five years, fuel vehicles will still play a leading role.
A German 4S shop salesperson said that although the manufacturer has plans for electric vehicles, the production cycle is required, and the problems such as charging piles and battery life have yet to be resolved. Therefore, it is still necessary to conduct a process to the market terminal. "Whether it is a pure electric vehicle or a hybrid car, the price is relatively high, generally exceeding 200,000 yuan, and the battery cost is about 1/3 to 1/5. In terms of comprehensive power, consumers will still tend to buy traditional fuel vehicles. "The salesperson of another Japanese 4S store also said.
In the first six months of this year, Lifan's new energy vehicle production was 3,495 units, an increase of 82.41% year-on-year; new energy vehicles sold 3,195 units, an increase of 96.74%. Although the increase was considerable, the base was low.
At the same time, since the launch of the car, the new energy vehicle intelligent travel platform that Lifan Holdings has invested in is strategically invested. In Lifan's view, the time-sharing of new energy vehicles will be a very important model for new energy vehicles to land in the market. However, to achieve profitability, the hope that the car will be expected to reach 50,000 vehicles will be profitable. At present, its latest data shows that there are only 18,000 vehicles, and it will reach 30,000 at the end of the year. This means that at present, the Panda car is still in a state of “not getting enough.â€
Changan travel related people pointed out that based on the big trend, the transition period of fuel vehicles completely shifting to new energy may last for decades. Based on this, Changan Automobile's time-sharing lease of Chang'an is not completely "betting" new energy vehicles.
The reporter learned that public data shows that by October 2015, Chongqing has promoted the application of new energy vehicles to 3,100 vehicles. In 2016, Chongqing produced and sold 7,550 new energy vehicles. The number of annual promotion applications exceeded 10,000 vehicles for the first time, reaching 18,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2.3 times. However, according to the development goal of the city's total promotion of 100,000 new energy vehicles by 2020, there is still a big gap. "These new energy vehicles are more mainly passenger cars and logistics vehicles, followed by plug-in hybrid vehicles, and finally pure electric vehicles." An industry insider who did not want to be named revealed.
Pure electric vehicle supporting enterprises are difficult to make profits in the short term
Not only the whole vehicle companies, but also supporting enterprises such as charging piles and batteries are also affected by the market.
Relevant persons of the Chongqing Electric Vehicle Time-sharing Leasing Union admitted that charging electricity and service fees are the basic sources of profit for most operators. According to the average market price, the average cost of slow charging public charging piles is 20,000 yuan, and the cost of fast charging piles is between 100,000 yuan and 200,000 yuan. After deducting various costs, it only depends on the electricity price difference and charging service fee, which is difficult to reach in the short term. The goal of profitability.
Another person in charge of charging pile technology in Chongqing said that he invested 2 million yuan and could only build a medium-sized charging station. The main cost is to build piles. Calculated by investing in 20 DC pile-scale sites, the decoration cost is about 1 million yuan, and there are construction costs. If the efficiency of use is controlled at around 10%, then one pile needs to work 2.4 hours a day, with a return of 0.8 yuan service fee, plus some member discounts, etc., the recycling cycle is basically more than five or six years.
According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 300 enterprises involved in the construction and operation of charging piles in China, but the daily usage rate of existing public charging piles is less than 1 car/day, and the loss has become the norm in the industry. In the past two years, there have been no fewer than 10 pile companies that have been out of the game or are facing out. The chairman of the special caller of New Energy Co., Ltd. Yu Dexiang is even more blunt. In the future, 70% of the pile enterprises will face integration or elimination.
Hybrid model "strong" return
In recent years, new energy vehicles represented by pure electric vehicles have been tepid because of the troubles of charging and cruising range. In this context, the plug-in hybrid car solves this problem. The reduction of subsidies is far less than that of pure electric vehicles with low cruising range. It has once again become a new target for all enterprises.
Changan Automobile, which announced the "Shangri-La Project" new energy strategy last year, released the Changan CS75 PHEV on September 12 this year after the release of the first plug-in hybrid sedan, the new Yiyun PHEV. The subsidy price was 16.58 to 196,800 yuan. . The car is a new plug-in hybrid SUV launched by Changan, using a plug-in hybrid car with a 3-engine 4 drive. According to the plan, Changan Automobile plans to introduce 12 plug-in hybrid products by 2025.
"We will accelerate the development of energy-saving technologies and hybrid technologies: Lifan will launch a number of hybrid models by 2020." Lifan Group said that Lifan plans to launch 20 pure and hybrid products by 2020. . Next, there will be a number of new cars such as the Lectra 01 plug-in hybrid and other new vehicles.
The joint venture brand has also sniffed business opportunities, and a number of plug-in hybrid models have been on the market recently. Such as BMW 530Le, Cadillac CT6 PHEV, the new Mondeo PHEV and the new Sonata PHEV, Dongfeng Yueda Kia K5 PHEV and so on.
In this regard, Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, believes that the forecast of new energy vehicle sales this year is more than 1 million, but the volume of new energy vehicles in the entire automobile market is still small. Fuel vehicles will also be the mainstay of the automotive market in the next decade. This is also a purely electric vehicle that looks slightly thin, while the hybrid model is “strongâ€, and the growth rate of plug-in hybrid models is much higher than that of pure electric vehicles.
According to the latest sales data released by the China Automobile Association, in August, China's new energy vehicle production and sales completed 99,000 and 101,000, respectively, an increase of 39% and 49.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles completed 72,000 and 73,000 respectively, up 24.2% and 31.7% year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles completed 27,000 and 28,000 respectively, an increase of 102.3% and 130.8%. At present, the sales of plug-in hybrids is more than four times that of pure electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrids have become the scent of new energy vehicles.
The sales statistics from the previous 8 months are more illustrative of this problem. From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 607,000 and 601,000 respectively, an increase of 75.4% and 88%. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 455,000 and 447,000 respectively, up 60.2% and 71.6% year-on-year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 153,000 and 154,000 respectively, up 144.2% and 159.7% year-on-year.
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New energy market or welcome "big reshuffle"
So in the future, will plug-in hybrid cars always be "in the right way"?
Experts from the China Automobile Association said that with the implementation of the "double points" policy, the growth rate of pure electric vehicles has slowed down. After the subsidies are retreated or cancelled, the company may choose more hybrid models.
Luo Lei, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that in the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles are more likely to be welcomed by consumers, but with the continuous technology of pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Development, industry continues to mature, transition products - plug-in hybrid vehicles will eventually withdraw from the market, time will be after 2025.
Song Qiuling, deputy director of the Economic Development Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at the 2018 China Automotive Industry Development International Forum held in early September, "We believe that the development of China's new energy automobile industry is still at a critical stage of going backwards and not going backwards."
First of all, the recent spontaneous combustion accident has undoubtedly poured cold water into the new energy automobile industry. "New energy vehicles as an emerging field, there is theoretical and technical barriers." According to industry sources, according to incomplete statistics, at least 10 fire accidents reported by the media have occurred in electric vehicles in the first half of this year.
At the same time, there are currently 487 electric vehicle manufacturers in China, of which few are qualified. The industry believes that only 10% of current Chinese electric car startups can survive in the next five years.
Yin Mingshan, founder of Lifan Group and former chairman of Lifan Group, once admitted: "In terms of Lifan itself, the outside world has low evaluation of our Lifan new energy. It is early in the morning and catches a late episode. If we are new energy vehicles If you don’t come up, it’s really possible to be eliminated in the future."
In fact, since the start of the approval of new energy vehicle production qualifications in March 2016, there have been 15 enterprises that have obtained the qualifications for new energy vehicles issued by the National Development and Reform Commission or approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, namely: Beiqi New Energy, Changjiang Automobile, Future Vehicle, Chery. New Energy, Jiangsu Min'an, Wanxiang Group, Jiangling New Energy, Chongqing Jinkang, Guoneng New Energy, Yundu New Energy, Zhidou, Suida, Hezhong, Luzhouzhou and Jianghuai Volkswagen. Most new energy auto companies are in the state of production and qualification.
Under this circumstance, on September 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the first batch of “Specially Publicized New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers†list. A total of 30 new energy production companies were listed because they did not produce new energy products in the past year.
According to the “Automobile Industry Exit Mechanism†of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will make special announcements for new energy automobile enterprises that have been suspended for 12 months or more. The re-production of related enterprises needs to be verified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Enterprises that fail to maintain access conditions or go bankrupt will be revoked.
"The introduction of the list indicates that a new round of reshuffle in the new energy auto industry is about to begin." An analyst who did not want to be named said that the giant brand and the joint venture brand entered a big way, and the new forces stepped up the "siege" and left it to the domestic new energy vehicle. The time has become increasingly urgent.
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