In 2015, China may enter the stage of multi-energy structure

At present, China's energy structure is mainly in the stage of fossil energy (more than 90%). If the proportion of non-fossil energy exceeds 10% as a sign of multi-component structure, China may enter the stage of multi-energy structure around 2015.

In the early decades of this stage, fossil energy will still dominate, but the combined annual coal and oil consumption will gradually decline. The absolute amount of total consumption this year will continue to increase over a period of time (approximately 20 years), reach a historic peak, and then slowly decrease. The inevitability of this change trend is determined by three reasons: First, the environmental problems caused by coal and petroleum must be controlled; second, the more fundamental reason lies in the non-renewability of coal and petroleum; and third, clean energy (including renewable energy). , nuclear power and natural gas) will gradually increase their ability to replace. After the absolute sum of coal and petroleum annual consumption reaches its peak, the increase in total energy demand in China will be supplemented by clean energy as mentioned above. The share of clean energy in China's primary energy structure will gradually increase. The multi-structure stage will last for about 100 years, and then enter the third stage of non-fossil energy. The sign of this new stage is that non-fossil energy will account for more than 90% of the total primary energy.

The strategic significance of discussing this “three stages of energy structure” over more than one hundred years is that it can enable us to qualitatively judge the major trends of various kinds of energy sources from the direction, thereby enhancing the stability of strategic planning and policy formulation. For example, natural gas, including unconventional natural gas, is a relatively clean fossil energy source. From the perspective of resources and development potential, it should become one of the key and bright spots in China's energy development. However, quantitatively speaking, even if we try to double or even double the natural gas supply capacity by the end of this century, we can only account for more than 10% of the total primary energy. By then, it will become a pillar of green energy, but it cannot rely on natural gas instead of coal and oil. To achieve a higher ratio of substitution, we must add the contribution of renewable energy and nuclear energy.

In the multi-structure stage, natural gas will play an important role in improving the energy structure. However, the development of renewable energy and nuclear energy is not mutually exclusive. The three work together, and one cannot reduce the number. By 2050, natural gas is expected to be clean. Energy accounts for half of China's primary energy structure (according to the research report of the Chinese Academy of Engineering) and further increases. Non-fossil energy-based phases must rely on the combined forces of renewable energy and nuclear energy to arrive earlier and develop steadily.