Energy-saving emission reduction, limited production, power-limiting measures, fear of non-ferrous metals industry
2024-08-24 15:00:51
The National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that economic data for August showed: First, industrial production grew steadily. In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 13.9% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in July. From January to August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.6% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from January to July. Second, the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment has stabilized at a high level. From January to August, urban fixed assets investment was 1,409.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, down 0.1 percentage point from January to July. Among them, state-owned and state-owned holding investment was 584.52 billion yuan, up 20.0%; real estate development investment was 2.8355 billion yuan, up 36.7%. Third, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew steadily and rapidly. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 1,257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, 0.5 percentage points higher than that in July. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 9.7492 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, which was the same as that in January-July. Fourth, the increase in consumer prices has expanded. In August, consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over July. Among them, the city rose 3.4%, the rural rose 3.7%; food prices rose 7.5%, non-food prices rose 1.5%; Fifth, the ex-factory price of industrial products continued to fall. In August, the ex-factory price of industrial products rose by 4.3% year-on-year, which was 0.5 percentage points lower than that in July.
Energy-saving emission reduction targets sprint, power cuts may extend to the non-ferrous metals industry, electrolytic aluminum bear the brunt. At present, the local government's power-limiting measures are mainly aimed at the steel and cement industries, and the market generally believes that if the power limit for cement and steel does not meet the emission reduction requirements, non-ferrous metals as the high-power industry will become the next limit. Electrical object. Among them, the electrolytic aluminum consumption consumes 14,500 kWh, and the absolute power consumption accounts for 94% of the basic metal power consumption, which may become the key control object. At present, the concentration of electrolytic aluminum industry is lower among non-ferrous metals. The top five electrolytic aluminum enterprises account for only 25%, far less than copper, lead and zinc, and there are more private enterprises in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The supply surplus has been very high. Big, this determines that the industry is likely to become the target of government regulation. At present, some provinces have adopted control measures for the electrolytic aluminum industry. Henan Province has completely abolished the preferential electricity price of electrolytic aluminum enterprises since July. The electricity price has risen directly from 0.45~0.47 yuan to 0.55 yuan, and the cost of ton aluminum has increased by about 1,200 yuan, which is a heavy blow to electrolytic aluminum enterprises without self-supplied power plants. . Guangxi's latest energy-saving and emission-reduction measures also indicated that it will limit the production of electricity to the electrolytic aluminum industry.
The draft plan for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†(2011-2015) for non-ferrous metals proposed by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that by 2015, the domestic production of ten non-ferrous metals such as refined copper, electrolytic aluminum, lead and zinc will be controlled at 4100. Within 10,000 tons, and all backward production capacity will be eliminated in accordance with industrial technology policies. In terms of mergers and acquisitions, specific requirements for concentration are put forward: By 2015, the top ten enterprises in copper, aluminum, lead and zinc accounted for 90%, 90%, 70% and 70% of the total national production respectively. In addition, we must “strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction†and “develop vigorously develop circular economyâ€.
Copper spot processing fees are close to zero, and copper concentrate negotiations in the middle of the year are still inconclusive. The market expects the outcome of the negotiations to be below $40/ton and 4.0 cents/lb as the current spot processing fee is close to zero. More importantly, it is generally impossible for the industry to see where the increase in copper concentrate comes from. According to the latest data from ICSG, copper concentrate production in January-May increased by only 0.3% year-on-year. As there is no new copper project, and the copper concentrate grade of the old mine continues to decline, the copper concentrate market will continue to be in short supply, and China's smelting capacity will continue to expand, which will directly lead to insufficient copper smelter operation and processing fees continue. decline.
China's August copper and copper imports increased by 17% year-on-year to 379,527 tons. According to preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Friday, China's imports of copper, copper alloys and copper semi-finished products increased by 17% year-on-year to 379,527 tons in August, an increase of 11% from 342,901 tons in the previous month. According to customs data, in August 2009, China imported 325,098 tons of copper and copper products. The data also shows that from January to August this year, China imported 2.95 million tons of copper, copper alloys and copper semi-finished products, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.
China Metallurgical will resume the construction of the Afghan copper mine project. On September 8th, foreign power quoted China Metallurgical's unnamed insiders as saying that a copper project in Afghanistan, jointly invested by the company and Jiangxi Copper, will resume construction during the year. According to the previous disclosures of China Metallurgical and Jiangtong, the two sides established the China Metallurgical Copper Ainake Mining Company in Afghanistan in June, jointly investing 4.39 billion US dollars to develop a large-scale copper mine project in the mining area, with a shareholding ratio of 75%: 25%. Earlier, New Century Weekly quoted Shen Heting, president of MCC, as saying that the project was stagnant shortly after the start of construction in July 2009 due to local policies and other factors.
Energy-saving emission reduction targets sprint, power cuts may extend to the non-ferrous metals industry, electrolytic aluminum bear the brunt. At present, the local government's power-limiting measures are mainly aimed at the steel and cement industries, and the market generally believes that if the power limit for cement and steel does not meet the emission reduction requirements, non-ferrous metals as the high-power industry will become the next limit. Electrical object. Among them, the electrolytic aluminum consumption consumes 14,500 kWh, and the absolute power consumption accounts for 94% of the basic metal power consumption, which may become the key control object. At present, the concentration of electrolytic aluminum industry is lower among non-ferrous metals. The top five electrolytic aluminum enterprises account for only 25%, far less than copper, lead and zinc, and there are more private enterprises in the electrolytic aluminum industry. The supply surplus has been very high. Big, this determines that the industry is likely to become the target of government regulation. At present, some provinces have adopted control measures for the electrolytic aluminum industry. Henan Province has completely abolished the preferential electricity price of electrolytic aluminum enterprises since July. The electricity price has risen directly from 0.45~0.47 yuan to 0.55 yuan, and the cost of ton aluminum has increased by about 1,200 yuan, which is a heavy blow to electrolytic aluminum enterprises without self-supplied power plants. . Guangxi's latest energy-saving and emission-reduction measures also indicated that it will limit the production of electricity to the electrolytic aluminum industry.
The draft plan for the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†(2011-2015) for non-ferrous metals proposed by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that by 2015, the domestic production of ten non-ferrous metals such as refined copper, electrolytic aluminum, lead and zinc will be controlled at 4100. Within 10,000 tons, and all backward production capacity will be eliminated in accordance with industrial technology policies. In terms of mergers and acquisitions, specific requirements for concentration are put forward: By 2015, the top ten enterprises in copper, aluminum, lead and zinc accounted for 90%, 90%, 70% and 70% of the total national production respectively. In addition, we must “strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction†and “develop vigorously develop circular economyâ€.
Copper spot processing fees are close to zero, and copper concentrate negotiations in the middle of the year are still inconclusive. The market expects the outcome of the negotiations to be below $40/ton and 4.0 cents/lb as the current spot processing fee is close to zero. More importantly, it is generally impossible for the industry to see where the increase in copper concentrate comes from. According to the latest data from ICSG, copper concentrate production in January-May increased by only 0.3% year-on-year. As there is no new copper project, and the copper concentrate grade of the old mine continues to decline, the copper concentrate market will continue to be in short supply, and China's smelting capacity will continue to expand, which will directly lead to insufficient copper smelter operation and processing fees continue. decline.
China's August copper and copper imports increased by 17% year-on-year to 379,527 tons. According to preliminary data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on Friday, China's imports of copper, copper alloys and copper semi-finished products increased by 17% year-on-year to 379,527 tons in August, an increase of 11% from 342,901 tons in the previous month. According to customs data, in August 2009, China imported 325,098 tons of copper and copper products. The data also shows that from January to August this year, China imported 2.95 million tons of copper, copper alloys and copper semi-finished products, a decrease of 0.5% year-on-year.
China Metallurgical will resume the construction of the Afghan copper mine project. On September 8th, foreign power quoted China Metallurgical's unnamed insiders as saying that a copper project in Afghanistan, jointly invested by the company and Jiangxi Copper, will resume construction during the year. According to the previous disclosures of China Metallurgical and Jiangtong, the two sides established the China Metallurgical Copper Ainake Mining Company in Afghanistan in June, jointly investing 4.39 billion US dollars to develop a large-scale copper mine project in the mining area, with a shareholding ratio of 75%: 25%. Earlier, New Century Weekly quoted Shen Heting, president of MCC, as saying that the project was stagnant shortly after the start of construction in July 2009 due to local policies and other factors.
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