Construction of Securities Futures: Review of Copper and Aluminum Futures on November 16
LME Market Report: Base Metals Firm, Investment Firms Entering Market After Price Falls
London, November 15 news: According to analysts, the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metal prices held firm on Wednesday, after the metal prices fell in recent days, investors believe that the time has come to market, the more robust the United States Economic data also supported market sentiment. LME three-month copper closed at US$6,910 per tonne, hitting a four-month low of 6,760 during the session and ending at US$6,845 on Tuesday. “The base metals suffered a strong sell-off in the past few days. It is excusable for speculators to wait for a chance to return to the market.
“Calyon analyst Michael Widmer said: “There is no reason why metal prices will continue to decline... The more robust US manufacturing data adds a bit of positive sentiment to the market.†New York Federal Reserve Bank’s New York State Manufacturing Activity Index for November The surprise rose to 26.66, up from 22.92 in October. One of the reasons for the recent weakness in the copper price is that investors believe the market will be oversupply next year. The copper inventory in LME's registered warehouse was slightly higher than 25,000 from July last year. The level of ton has increased to more than 150,000 tons. "China's data suggest that demand will not rise as some people expect ... China's current import volume is insufficient." Man Financial analyst Mel said.
Traders are concerned about the developments in Zambia, where Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) temporarily closed Nchanga's open-pit mine. A state agency had previously cancelled some of its operating permits due to pollution disputes. Closed mines caused a daily reduction of 540 tons of finished copper. Customs released data on Wednesday that China’s unforged copper imports (including copper alloys) from January to October decreased by 37.7% year-on-year. UBS said in a research report that China’s import of copper is clearly out of proportion to its economic size and growth rate. A few years ago, the report also stressed that the use of aluminum as an alternative has led to a reduction in demand for copper by as much as 350,000 tons. Period of aluminum rose 12 US dollars, to close at 2,698 per ton. Standard Bank report said that aluminum prices still have room to rise Lead increased from 1,500 to 1,520 U.S. dollars, hitting a one-month low of 1,440 earlier. Last week, it hit a contract high of 1,755. Deutsche Bank’s report stated: “After benign revisions, we expect lead prices to increase by the beginning of next year. Continue to operate at a high level. "The report points to steady demand from the US and China. Zinc increased from 4,140 to 4,200 U.S. dollars, nickel rose 450 U.S. dollars to 29,650, and tin fell from 9,800/9,850 to 9,650.
COMEX copper market report: slightly higher, finishing the sharp decline last week
NEW YORK, November 15: According to sources, copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) closed slightly higher on Wednesday, but it is still stuck near the 19-week low, as the market has consolidated after last week's plunge. In response to last Friday's decline, the market seems to have reversed the decline, but I think many investors see the decline on Friday as a crash. "A futures broker said that the .COMEX December copper contract. 0.55 cents higher, reported as 3.0945 US dollars per pound, intraday trading in the range of 3.0350-3.1140 US dollars. Monday, December copper fell to the low of 3.02 US dollars since June 28. Spot November copper rose slightly 0.35 US dollars Points, which closed at 3.0875 U.S. dollars, were firmer for the various long-term futures, which ranged from 0.10-0.70 cents higher. The COMEX final volume was projected at 15,000 lots, down from Tuesday's 15,140 contracts.
(Pre-review)
Copper: Supported by technical buying, yesterday's copper in LME in March showed a trend of bottoming out. It closed at $6885/tonne, up $5/tonne from the previous trading day, and the fluctuation ranged from $6930-16765/tonne. Yesterday, LME copper stocks increased 150 tons to 152,075 tons. Sources have indicated that the strike of several hundred Tanzanian-Zambian railway workers starting on the 15th will continue to have a certain impact on the copper mine. From the technical point of view, at present, London Copper is in the vicinity of the central axis of the transaction-intensive region of 6400-7000 US dollars. This position has certain support for the price, but price technology is still in a weak position. The domestic Shanghai copper showed a sharp dive in yesterday's trading session. The main contract was hit to the limit and the trading volume continued to increase, showing a domestic panic. In the short term Shanghai copper will remain weak. The spot price of the Yangtze River yesterday was 65200~65,450 yuan. / Ton, operational recommendations are still dominated by short-term trading.
Aluminium: Affected by Other metals, LME March aluminum aluminum bottomed out yesterday. It ended up at US$2,700/ton, which was US$10/ton higher than the previous trading day. The fluctuation range was 2710~2662.5yuan/ton. Inventory increased by 3725 tons to 680,200 tons, from the perspective of form, aluminum prices may be further adjusted. Yesterday, the domestic aluminum exhibited a wide range of shocks, the spot price remained stable, yesterday, the domestic spot price of the Yangtze River is 21,100 ~ 21,160 yuan / ton, operation suggested that intraday rebound can still establish a small amount of short-term short-term single.
(background analysis)
Copper: lme copper prices to accept the decline this week, slightly lower last night. On the fundamentals, stocks continue to increase by 625 tons, and the increased regions include the United States and Europe. In addition, the Norte copper mine under the Chilean state-owned copper company submitted a new salary contract to the unions of the four copper mines, which stipulated that Codelco agreed to raise the salary of approximately 3,000 workers by 3.25% and offer a total of 7.2 million Chilean pesos. , aims to promote the development of contract negotiations. Judging from the enthusiasm and sincerity of the mine owners’ negotiations, strikes are likely to be avoided. Lme copper prices closed below the range for 3 consecutive days and may trigger more selling pressure.
Domestically, the output of industrial enterprises above designated size announced by the National Bureau of Statistics rose by only 14.7% in October, 1.4% from September, becoming a slower growth rate this year, and far below the market expectation of 16%, indicating that macroeconomic regulation and control The effect further showed that the domestic economy slowed down in the fourth quarter. Affected by this, today's Shanghai copper has hit a falling limit, and the closing price also fell sharply. The weaker fundamentals will eventually hit copper prices. In addition, the data released by the Customs show that in October, China's refined copper imports fell to 180,000 tons, much lower than the 381,000 tons in September, and refined copper imports in the first 10 months fell by 11% year-on-year. The output data showed that the refined copper production in October was 248,300 tons, an increase of 9% year-on-year, indicating that the smelters are reducing their inventory and that the growth of refined copper production in November and December is expected to slow down. However, this is consistent with the slowdown in demand for refined copper in China.
Aluminium: Inventory continues to decline, but the rate of decline slows. For Lme, aluminum prices show greater technical pressure. In the domestic market, the spot market maintained at a relatively stable level, prices continued to maintain a premium, and the pattern of tight supply and demand in the short term did not materially change, becoming a support factor for aluminum prices. On the other hand, the reality of fundamentals, the long-term pressure of aluminum prices can not be ignored, the new statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that aluminum production increased by 22% to 816,000 tons, the accelerating growth, the first 10 months, the growth rate of 19 %; Alumina production hit a record high, reaching 1,234,700 tons, an increase of 59.5%, the output of the first 10 months has exceeded 10.74 million tons, the annual output may exceed 13 million tons, much higher than expected Further stimulate the accelerated growth of aluminum production. In the short term, aluminum prices remain high and in the long term, the fundamentals are not conducive to aluminum prices at a high level.
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