China's economy will gradually pick up next year, labor compensation will grow

The Chinese economy is almost bottoming out and will gradually pick up next year. Although the growth rate of workers' wages may decline, they will still grow. This is a prediction made by a number of authoritative experts at the "Xinhua Jingshi Shibang Human Resources Index Conference and 2013 China Pay Trends Seminar" held recently.

The Xinhua Jingshi State Human Resources Index report released at the meeting showed that in the first three quarters of this year, the total employment of four key industries in 15 cities in China increased by more than 5% year-on-year. The average labor compensation of labor dispatched personnel surveyed compared with the previous year. With a growth of 15.1%, the price factor was removed by 12.04%. In terms of industry, the employment of transportation, finance, warehousing and postal services continued to grow for nine months, but the wholesale and retail industries and manufacturing industries declined significantly.

Some scholars believe that because the marginal cost of resource use has risen sharply, the dividend of the labor force has basically disappeared, and the international market is shrinking, the Chinese economy will enter a stage of low-to-medium growth. However, Liu Yingqiu, dean of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who studied macroeconomics, said at the meeting that China’s economic regions are relatively different, and that backward regions have inherent impulsive impulses to meet medium or high-income areas, and this catch-up process It is the process of growth. Not only that, the traditional demographic dividend has not disappeared, the number and income of highly skilled workers will increase, and the resulting increase in labor productivity will increase as soon as the wage growth rate increases. On the other hand, the domestic market still has great potential, and the dividends in the reform of the system are far from being released. Therefore, he believes that China will not be a low-growth stage in the next 10 years, but a second-high growth stage, with GDP growth of around 8.5%. China's economy will gradually pick up in 2013, and it will be more obvious in the second half of next year.

Yang Yiyong, director of the National Development and Reform Commission's Institute of Social Development, analyzed the salary trends of Chinese workers. He said that during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, China's salary growth was relatively fast, and workers during the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The income growth will slow down, but the gap with GDP growth will become smaller and smaller.

Mo Rong, director of the International Labor and Social Security Institute of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, also believes that the salary will continue to increase in the future. If the control is within a reasonable growth range, the increase in wages will not cause a large number of unemployed or inflation.

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