The domestic steel market is now facing a dilemma for exporters to make profits

After the Chinese New Year holiday, the domestic steel market was subject to the law's inertial pull-up. Under the influence of the general trend, Wuhan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. took the lead in introducing Baosteel's steel price policy in March. In February, the leading product, tons of steel, was generally raised by 200-400. yuan.

In terms of hot rolling, weathering steel and yoke steel were increased by 200 yuan/ton; high-strength welded structural steel was increased by 400 yuan/ton; other products were increased by 300 yuan/ton; current Q235 material was 5.5mm by 1500, and the ex-factory price was 4,520 yuan. / Ton, SPHC material 3.0mm × 1250 hot coil prices for the 4620 yuan / ton. The prices mentioned above are all tax-free and will be implemented starting on March 1.

For the reason of price adjustment, some analysts said to the "First Financial Daily" that since December last year, the domestic steel market above the main performers, which plate eye-catching performance, price levels have risen significantly, the current Shanghai hot coil price is more than 4,800 yuan / ton, Compared with the increase of more than 500 yuan in early December of last year, it laid the foundation for the price increase of steel mills. At the same time, the increase in the price of iron ore and coke, which is the main raw material for fuel, has increased the production cost of steel mills and also supported the price increase of steel mills.

However, on the same day, some domestic urban flat products began to show signs of decline. “Demand for weak market demand after the holiday period, coupled with weaker electronic market, the domestic steel market began to turn a corner on February 14.” The source told the newspaper.

Before the rise of steel prices rose, after the Spring Festival, a short period of 3 trading days, the domestic steel market has risen sharply, of which hot-rolled products rose first, the range is generally close to one hundred yuan, cold-rolled, threaded and medium plate and other varieties Follow up one after another. According to the data, due to the relatively strong festive atmosphere, effective demand has not yet been activated, and transactions have been slack after pulling up, and the elasticity between quoted prices and actual transactions is relatively large.

Since then, hot-rolled electronic discs have appeared in the afternoon of February 11 diving market, Shanghai hot spot first high volatility adjustment, followed by other regions. At present, Shanghai 5.5-carbon thermal coil has been adjusted to RMB 4,860/ton from the previous RMB 4,910/ton, but it is still higher than before the Spring Festival.

Analysts believe that with the price increase of steel mills in recent months, the ordering costs of agents and end-users have risen sharply, and the phenomenon of inversion has re-emerged. Some merchants have expressed difficulty in accepting and intending to reduce order quantity.

The sharp rise in social stocks gave some support to this view. At present, the total social inventory reached 17.12 million tons, which was a net increase of 2.4 million tons before the Spring Festival, and a cumulative increase of 4.32 million tons from the previous low, only one step away from the historic high level (1858 million tons at the beginning of March 2010).

According to the above sources, from the perspective of medium and long-term operation trends, the periodicity of steel prices and the height risk of prices are increasing, and an improved profitability will stimulate the steel mills to increase their productivity, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. The major varieties of steel prices in the future 2 The probability of a turning point (that is, a drop of more than 500 yuan) within a month has also increased.

8.2% increase in exports

While domestic steel demand is weak, as the international steel market price continues to rise sharply, the difference between the domestic and foreign steel market has gradually narrowed, and the attractiveness of the export market has gradually increased.

The statistics released by the General Administration of Customs yesterday showed that in January China exported 3.12 million tons of steel, an increase of 240,000 tons, an increase of 8.2%, and an increase of 270,000 tons. Compared with the beginning of this year, after the Spring Festival, the import price of hot rolled coils in the international steel market increased by about US$100/ton (FOB, the same below), which has far exceeded the increase in the domestic steel market. Japan's hot rolled coil export quotation is 770 US dollars / ton, compared with the end of last year rose 130 US dollars / ton.

Some analysis reports predict that under the background of the continuous rise in the prices of the international steel market, China's steel export quotation will also increase substantially. It is expected that China's steel export volume in the later period is expected to continue to rebound. In January, a steel mill in northern China received a large number of export orders for hot-rolled coils at a price of 700 to 720 US dollars per ton.

However, some people in the industry pointed out that China's steel exports this year will continue to be affected by foreign "double counter" investigations. In recent days, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus have announced anti-dumping investigations on color-coated plates originating in China. This is also a high-end product in China's export steel products. In 2010, China exported 509,000 tons of color-coated panels to Russia, with a total value of 470 million US dollars; 423 tons was exported to Belarus with a total value of 399,000 US dollars; and 24,000 tons was exported to Kazakhstan, with a total value of 28.35 million US dollars.