The biggest risk for companies in 2015 is the tight capital chain.

At the time of the new and old changes, major research institutions have introduced the 2015 China economic outlook.

According to the 2015 China Macroeconomic and Financial Outlook Report released by the Bank of Communications on the 6th, China's GDP grew by 7.2% in 2015, with exports rebounding slightly, consumption remained stable, and investment growth slowed. UBS Securities expects GDP growth to continue to slow to 6.8% in 2015. The British "Economist" think tank and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences forecast a 7%.

Judging from the forecast results, it seems that the market has accepted the expectation that China's economic growth will slow down substantially. But is this the "new normal"?

Li Zuojun, deputy director of the Institute of Resources and Environmental Policy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview that if the performance of short-term indicators is seen, the economy in 2015 is still difficult to give people an optimistic feeling. However, if we look at the long-term perspective, we will continue to reduce the overcapacity, release some economic risks, reduce the pressure on resources and the environment, change the structure and promote comprehensive reforms, etc. in 2015, for the long-term, healthy and sustainable Chinese economy. Sustainable development creates conditions. "Only when the economic growth shift, structural adjustment pain, and economic risk release are basically completed, will it gradually enter a relatively stable and sustainable new normal period, which may be after 2016."

Reporter: In 2014, the Chinese economy experienced a "complex" plus "difficult" situation. What will be the situation in 2015?

Li Zuojun: 2015 will be a year of competition with risk. The economy continues to face downward pressure, and the “troika” that drives economic growth is in different directions. Exports may be slightly improved, investment will continue to decline, consumption differentiation, information and health and other emerging consumption will rise, and traditional consumption will continue to be sluggish.

Supply indicators such as industrial added value, electricity consumption and PMI are expected to fluctuate. Price indicators such as CPI, PPI, housing prices, interest rates, exchange rates, oil prices, precious metals, and silver prices have fallen most of the time; economic deflationary pressures have increased, government revenues, corporate profits, income growth of urban and rural residents have declined, and pressure on income and expenditure has increased.

At the same time, economic risks caused by high housing prices, local debt, shadow banking, and overcapacity began to emerge and release. The reform of key areas accelerated, the reform dividend began to be released, the economic structure was further optimized, and the positive energy and negative energy of the economy were fierce. On the one hand, macroeconomic policies have been introduced intensively,

Reporter: In 2015, what is the biggest uncertainty of policy, what is the biggest risk facing enterprises, and how should it be resolved?

Li Zuojun: Although the economic situation is still difficult to talk about optimism, the 2015 policy is generally relatively certain. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. What is not certain at the moment is how strong the implementation of fiscal policy is, and where is the moderate degree of monetary policy? These two issues determine the level of funding in 2015.

One thing is certain. In 2015, the level of funding was higher than in 2014. Because of the pressure on enterprises to pay interest and interest, hot money may continue to flow out, investment efficiency is still low, etc., all will increase the funding tension.

The biggest risk facing companies in 2015 is the tight capital chain. The reason is that the company's debt ratio is high, market demand continues to be sluggish, and some factor costs rise, which makes it difficult for enterprises to improve their efficiency. Some enterprises with overcapacity and capital chain break enterprises have faced the test of life and death, and have increased the risk of the entire capital chain.

Resolving corporate risks requires the joint efforts of both the government and the enterprise. For the government, it is mainly to provide enterprises with the necessary financial support to reduce the burden of taxes and fees. For enterprises, it is mainly to find a way out by strengthening management, reducing costs, improving investment efficiency, and promoting product transformation and upgrading.

Reporter: In the short term, the Chinese economy should now be the stage of transition to the "new normal." We have seen that since the beginning of the year, the State Council has introduced the issue of decentralization and decentralization, and the implementation of price opening for products and services in various fields. In your opinion, what kind of countermeasures should the government adopt during this transitional period?

Li Zuojun: The true new normal should only emerge when the bottom of the economy has been proved, the economic bubble problem has been basically solved, new growth points have begun to form, reform dividends have begun to be released, and the economy has begun to develop in a healthy and stable state. The current main task is indeed to achieve a smooth transition to the new normal.

This transition period is first of all to increase growth and control risks. To grow up is to respect the laws of the economy, adapt to the trend of economic growth, and do not over-intervene in the adjustment of economic speed. In the process of growth, certain economic risks may occur. Therefore, it is necessary to do a good job of preventing, controlling and mitigating risks, and to control risks within a certain range to avoid economic ups and downs.

The second is to go to capacity and squeeze the bubble. The problem of overcapacity cannot be quietly invisible. The economic bubble, including overcapacity, high housing prices, local debt, and shadow banking, cannot be easily resolved through reform, transformation, and innovation. Reform, transformation, and innovation can mainly solve the problem of cultivating new growth points. As for the elimination of overcapacity and the resolution of the economic bubble, other methods need to be resolved. In the process of de-capacity and foaming, the risk is difficult to avoid. What if I have a risk? Avoiding is not a solution. It is not a solution to delay in the future. Only by courageously confronting and actively resolving is the right way. An important way to resolve is to release the risk, not to hold the risk. It takes skill and risk to release the risk.

The third is to keep the bottom line and stabilize the society. In order to maintain the basic stability of the society, in the process of transition to the new normal, we must have a bottom line awareness, we must think of the worst situation, prepare adequately in advance, and control all kinds of contradictions and problems as much as possible. Within the scope.

Reporter: What is the long-term countermeasure for a smooth transition to the new normal?

Li Zuojun: The long-term countermeasures are mainly reflected in the three aspects of comprehensive reform, economic transformation and comprehensive innovation. They correspond to the “three engines” of economic growth dynamics, and also correspond to three aspects of human development theory: system guides, resource equipment people. Division of labor. Only by adopting these long-term countermeasures and combining short-term countermeasures can we smoothly realize a smooth transition of the economy to the new normal.

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