Shanghai Aluminum restarts rising market
Recently, the Shanghai aluminum market has seen a lot of bad news. On October 27, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting from November 1, the import tariff rate for alumina will be reduced from 5.5% to 3%, and the export tax rate for electrolytic aluminum will be increased from 5% to 15%; November 3 Chinalco reduced the spot sales price of alumina from 2,950 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton. On the same day, the Central Bank announced that it will raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points to 9% from November 15. However, facing a strong demand for lower inventory and consumption, Shanghai Aluminum, after a short-term correction, resumed sharp rise on the 6th. Shanghai Aluminum will restart the midline rally.
The increase in the reserve ratio has limited impact on Shanghai Aluminum. The central bank once again raised the deposit reserve ratio in order to ease the pressure on excess liquidity in the banking system and consolidate the results of the previous macro-control. However, the deposit reserve ratio was raised by 0.5%, and only about 163.9 billion deposits were frozen. For the huge 32.78 trillion yuan deposit balance of financial institutions, the impact of monetary tightening is very limited, and the consumption of aluminum is limited. And production is not much restrained, and the pre-market regulation and control policies for the central bank will have been expected and digested. In fact, although the previous countries have introduced measures such as raising the deposit reserve ratio and raising interest rates, the GDP growth in the first three quarters was still as high as 10.7%, only 0.2 percentage points lower than the first half.
The tax rate adjustment only changes the foreign trade structure of aluminum products. According to customs statistics, from January to September this year, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in China increased by 18.7% year-on-year to 1.83 million tons. Among them, the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum alloys decreased by 5.8% compared with the same period of last year. The export volume of semi-finished aluminum products increased by 67.1% year-on-year to 8.6650 million tons. From the perspective of export momentum, un-forged aluminum and aluminum alloys have decreased, while aluminum semi-finished products have increased substantially. This is actually a reflection of the related companies actively facing the adjustment of the national aluminum industry policy and export policy.
From September 15, the state reduced the export tax rebate for aluminum profiles and strips from 13% to 11%, while maintaining the tax rebate rate for aluminum foil and aluminum alloy wheels. The tariff adjustment did not mention adjustment of aluminum materials. Export tax rebate rate. Considering that the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum has been substantially increased from 5% to 15%, the export of electrolytic aluminum and its primary products will continue to cool down in the later period, while aluminum, aluminum, aluminum, aluminum, aluminum, aluminum, etc. Exports of aluminum semi-manufactured goods are still 8%-11% of export tax rebates. Driven by interests, relevant companies will inevitably increase their export of aluminum manufactured goods to plan to make up or reduce the export of electrolytic aluminum primary products. Loss of tax. In the short term, the export of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced, and domestic supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase. There will be some pressure on the domestic aluminum price in the near term, but as the export of aluminum and other aluminum products increases, the consumption demand for electrolytic aluminum will also recover. Or close to the original level of growth, if there is no major change in other external environments, the mid-line support for aluminum prices will resume.
Tighter balance between aluminum supply and demand According to the statistics of the Aluminum Association of the People's Republic of China, the aluminum inventory in western countries has basically shown a declining trend in recent years. In January of this year, it reached a high of 3.235 million tons during the year and it has fallen to 2.828 million in September this year. Tons, a decrease of 10.8% from the beginning of the year and a decrease of 10.7% from September last year.
From the perspective of the three major exchanges, aluminum stocks gradually decreased from the end of March this year, and on November 3, the sum of aluminum inventories of the three exchanges has dropped to 701,423 tons, a record low in the year, a decrease of 25.8% from the end of March. Relatively speaking, the low level of aluminum stocks in domestic exchanges is even more pronounced. Although there is an excess of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the strong consumption is obvious to all, and its support for Shanghai aluminum prices is also relatively clear.
The pursuit of funds to push up aluminum prices In theory, the cost price of electrolytic aluminum has a great impact on aluminum prices; however, it is worth noting that in the bull market, the market funds, especially the futures market funds sought after, aluminum futures The impact can not be ignored, Moreover, the current Shanghai copper transactions and positions have been significantly reduced, the original part of the Shanghai copper funds transferred to Shanghai aluminum, this part of the speculative funds will be throwing pressure with the spot merchant hedging, if you can fully digest the spot business The pressure of the reserve price, the Shanghai aluminum market still has a larger upside.
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