** Prices return to low

Since mid-December, prices of ** have fallen. At present, the national average price is 2354.55 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is 2.3% lower than the average price of 2,410 yuan in early December and 12.56% lower than the same period of last year. The price is basically the same. Back to the low point in October. However, people in the industry believe that with the increase in favorable factors, the market outlook may soon rebound.

** The main reason for the drop in prices is the increase in market supply. In the first half of the year, the nitrogen fertilizer market was extremely sluggish. Urea prices hit a new low in 10 years, and some companies were forced to stop production. After the second half of the year, prices have picked up again, and in addition to taking over the spring ploughing and fertilizer market, some nitrogen fertilizer producers that had stopped production in the early stages have resumed production. At the same time, the natural gas supply situation this year is better than in previous years. After entering the winter in previous years, the reasons for restricted gas in gas generators with nitrogen in the gas-to-air plants are often large-scale production cuts or low-load production. This year's production is basically normal, and this year's ** supply has increased.

The production of a new nitrogen fertilizer plant also increased market sentiment. There is a 800,000-ton/year urea enterprise in Hebei Zhangzhou area that will be completed and put into operation. No urea will be produced in advance, and all the production will be **, and 5,000 tons will be supplied to the market every day. After this news came out, the bearish sentiment in the Hebei market has increased significantly. In less than a month, the accumulated decline has exceeded 200 yuan, making it the market with the largest drop.

In the future, there is little room for prices to continue to fall. There are three main reasons: First, the downstream demand is still acceptable. This round of price fall is mainly a supply problem. The demand has been relatively stable. Second, the coal price has risen. With coal companies limiting production insured prices and entering the winter fertilizer peak period, The price of coal rose by 5% to 10% from the previous low, which pushed up the production cost. Third, the urea market went well. Due to the influence of tariffs, light storage, and cost support, urea prices rose compared with November. 50 to 100 yuan, reducing the market pressure.