Nuclear power policy or adjustment of electricity coal to increase new demand

The accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant may slow down the development of global nuclear power. Affected by the earthquake and tsunami, 10 nuclear power plants in Japan have been shut down and shut down, and radioactive material leaked from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Looking at the history of nuclear power development in the world, after the occurrence of a serious nuclear accident, the construction and development of nuclear power in various countries usually rapidly cool down.

After the nuclear accident in Japan, the development of nuclear power in the world may slow down again, and global energy policy may reshape.

As China tightens its nuclear power policy, the pace of nuclear power development may be adjusted. The executive meeting of the State Council decided to comprehensively review the construction of nuclear power plants under construction and stop the construction immediately without complying with the safety standards; strictly examine and approve new nuclear power projects, step up the preparation of nuclear safety planning, and adjust and improve the mid- and long-term plans for the development of nuclear power. Before the approval of nuclear safety planning, the approval of nuclear power projects shall be suspended. Including the project to carry out the preparatory work. The long-term goal of China’s nuclear power development may be lowered. Some nuclear power was replaced by thermal power and the demand for thermal coal increased. We estimate that if the “12th Five-Year” nuclear power project under construction is postponed for one year, the demand for thermal coal will increase by 95 million tons; if the proposed “13th Five-Year Plan” project is blocked, the increase in demand for coal in the next five years under the three scenarios will be the maximum. Up to 450 million tons.

Scenario 1: All proposed projects are postponed for one year, increasing the demand for coal by 150 million tons;

Scenario 2: Construction of the project to be built in the inland province was suspended, and the coastal project was postponed for one year, increasing the demand for coal by 300 million tons;

Scenario 3: The planned construction of the project is completely suspended, increasing the demand for coal by 450 million tons.

The domestic coal price is supported again. On the one hand, during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the National Development and Reform Commission sets a ceiling of 4 billion tons on coal production. The average annual growth of raw coal production in the next five years is only 120 million tons (+3.3%), and the supply and demand of coal is tight; on the other hand, if nuclear power The development is hindered, and the substitution of thermal power for nuclear power may become another support for the rise of thermal coal prices. According to our previous calculations, during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, nuclear power projects under construction will be put into operation one year later, and the average annual increase in demand for electric coal will be 19 million tons, which will account for about 20% of the increase in raw coal supply for thermal coal.

Japan's future coal imports may increase. The earthquake caused an installed downtime of 6.8 million kilowatts in Japan, some of which may be offset by thermal power. We estimate that the monthly demand for new coal will be approximately 367,000 tons. From a longer time point of view, this Fukushima nuclear accident may lead to Japan’s nuclear power policy and the adjustment of its power structure in the future, and it is highly probable that the proportion of thermal power will be further increased, and its coal imports will increase accordingly. Therefore, for international coal prices, short-term thermal power will provide support for nuclear power and long-term increase in thermal power share.