Local two conferences frequently mention "one city, one policy" 2019 real estate policy or structural adjustment

In late January, the national and local conferences were held intensively. From the expressions of real estate regulation and control in various places, under the premise of insisting on the positioning of “residence and non-speculation”, “one city, one policy”, “long-term mechanism”, “stable land price, stable price, stable expectation”, “cultivating housing lease” "Market" and so on become keywords. Experts pointed out that in 2019, the autonomy of the regulation of the property market may be improved, and the regulatory policies may be moderately adjusted.
"One city, one policy" into the mainstream <br> or comb according to the "Shanghai Financial News" reporter, and in 2019 released two sessions during the local government work report, and more that "a one policy" program for the real estate market, and It is clear that in 2019, the housing market system and housing security system will continue to be improved, the housing leasing market will be accelerated, and the real estate market will be stable and healthy.
In terms of first-tier cities, Shanghai proposed that it will continue to stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices, and stabilize expectations; accelerate the construction of leased houses, build and convert 100,000 sets of leased houses, and add 90,000 sets of rented houses to further regulate the development of the housing leasing market; Newly supply 60,000 sets of various types of affordable housing; complete the renovation of the second-class old houses in the central city of 500,000 square meters, comprehensively renovate the 3 million square meters of old houses, and repair and protect the houses of 1 million square meters. Beijing proposed to improve the housing market system and guarantee system, speed up the construction of the residential projects and the pace of entering the market, standardize the housing leasing market policy, promote the stability of the housing leasing market, and build 50,000 sets of leased houses and 60,000 policy-oriented housing units through multi-channel construction. Set, complete the shantytown renovation of 11,500 households. Shenzhen proposed to increase the construction of talent housing, housing-type housing, public rental housing, and introduce special policies to strictly control the housing and industrial housing rents to rise too fast, and build 80,000 sets of talent housing and affordable housing, and supply 34,000 sets. Supply is more powerful.
In addition, Chengdu, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guangdong and other places have also proposed their own "one city and one policy." For example, Chengdu proposed to adhere to the "house is used to live, not for speculation" positioning, build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market, improve the housing security system, and actively solve the problem of housing "just need" and "just changed." Study the specific plan of “one city and one policy”, formulate the policy of “adapting to local conditions”, accurately control housing prices, realize the healthy development of the real estate market, and strive to meet the diversified housing needs of the citizens.
"The relationship between 'one city and one policy' and 'because of city policy" emphasizes the policy adjustment according to the actual situation of each place, but the 'city policy' has the meaning of central adjustment, that is, the central government gives policy provisions according to local conditions. It is mainly aimed at cities where housing prices are rising too fast and stocks are too high. The 'one city and one policy' means that the autonomy of regulation and control is greater everywhere. At the same time, various types of regulation and control will have different assessment systems, that is, local governments need to bear the responsibility of regulation. Yan Yuejin, research director of the Yiju Research Center think tank.
Property market policy or structural adjustment <br> Compared with the previous two years, "strengthening regulation and control", in addition to "one city and one policy", "ensure the stable development of the real estate market" is also frequently mentioned in this year's two sessions, real estate Expectations that regulatory measures may be loosened are heating up.
"The possibility of full exit of regulation and control is small. The two principles of 'household not to fire' and 'because of city policy" will not change. At the same time, the opening of the housing leasing market objectively requires price stability." Bank of Communications Financial Research Center Senior researcher Xia Dan told the Shanghai Financial News reporter, "However, combined with the current macroeconomic and real estate market situation, the real estate policy in 2019 may have moderate structural adjustments, and the policies may be moderately relaxed around the second quarter."
“The real estate policy has realistic needs for moderate adjustment.” Xia Dan further pointed out that “from the inside, it is necessary to increase the support for housing just needed and reduce the “injury” of improving demand, especially the replacement of small units into large units. Demand; from the outside, China’s economic growth momentum is insufficient, and trade frictions are unresolved. These factors may lead to an increase in demand and expectations of real estate regulation and control, and the decision-making level’s attitude toward regulation will slow down.”
Xia Dan stressed that the current period of policy is waiting, the localities may be bottom-up, bright and loose, and local trials and fine-tuning. If the price control task is “achieved”, or reserve more space for the subsequent policy environment improvement. However, from the goal of “suppressing the rise in housing prices”, “the ratio does not rise” can be achieved relatively quickly, and it is still more difficult to achieve “not rising year by year”.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Wang Long, who works in Shanghai, originally planned to return to his hometown to buy a house during the Spring Festival holiday, but after talking with his family, he dismissed the idea. "On the one hand, there is not much room for housing prices to continue to rise, and investment property income is small; on the other hand, I am engaged in the semiconductor industry, and I want to continue to develop in Shanghai in the future," said Wang Long.
The "2018-2019 Return Homeland Survey Report" released by the 58-city joint city 36 recently showed that 52.7% of the people working in the big cities had the intention to return to their hometowns and neighboring cities, and another 38.0% chose Stay in the big city of work to fight. Compared with 58.7% in 2018, the proportion of people who intend to return home in 2019 decreased slightly.
The return to hometown boom has cooled, mainly because potential buyers are expecting changes in the property market.
According to statistics from Centaline Real Estate, in 2018, more than 450 real estate regulations were implemented throughout the country, making it the most intensive year for the introduction of regulatory policies. At the end of last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development put forward the requirements of “stable price, stable housing prices, and stable expectations” at the national housing and urban-rural construction work conference. The local two conferences in Henan and Fujian also clearly put forward the “three stability” target, which indicates the stability of the property market regulation. Sex and continuity will continue.
Yi Wei, an analyst at Yiju Research Institute, said that returning home ownership was an important force supporting the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, in the past two years, the macro-control of the third- and fourth-tier cities has gradually strengthened, and consumers are waiting to see the future trend of the property market. Return home to home the boom.
Relevant experts said that the downturn in the return of home buyers indicates that the real estate market in the third- and fourth-tier cities has quietly eliminated the bubble and gradually become more rational. It is also a concrete manifestation of the implementation of the “control policy based on city policy and classification guidance”. The stable housing prices in the third- and fourth-tier cities are also conducive to the establishment of a long-term regulation mechanism, thereby weakening the investment property of the real estate industry and realizing the positioning of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”.

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