Exports drive steel production growth is not feasible

After China joined the World Trade Organization, foreign trade has made a great contribution to economic growth. Many companies have built specifically for export, but experts believe that this model is difficult to replicate in the steel industry. In 2006 and 2007, China's steel export growth rate was relatively fast. In 2008, China's steel export volume reached 70 million tons, and the steel industry's large-scale export trend appeared. If this momentum continues, China is likely to import iron ore, use China's coal for smelting, and export steel to overseas. At least from the perspective of resource endowments, China has more coal, more labor, and has the potential to export steel. . However, this momentum has not been sustained. "At the time, it caused many countries to be dissatisfied and suffered a lot of trade frictions," said Xu Xiangchun, director of information for "My Steel Network." After 2009, steel exports fell rapidly and rebounded in the past two years. Last year, the total export of steel was 48.88 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. In fact, China’s policy does not support large-scale steel exports. “The main reason is that China’s iron ore resources are limited, and the pressure on the environment and energy is too great.” Huatai United Securities analyst Zhao Xiangwu said that exporting iron ore may Earn some profits, but these profits are based on the distortion of the domestic environment pollution and energy prices, which may not be worth the candle. Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary-general of China Steel Association and president of the Metallurgical Planning Institute, also believes that China's iron ore reserves and environmental capacity do not allow China to become a steel exporting country. China's steel development plan is also aimed at ensuring domestic demand and does not encourage exports. “I went to Japan and South Korea to investigate. They are very worried about China's steel exports.” Zhao Xiangwu said that because China's total steel output is large, even if the export ratio is not large, it will have a big impact on overseas markets. Japan is a country with a large proportion of steel exports, accounting for 30% of its total. Xu Xiangchun expects that China will not reach this ratio. Even if it reaches 20%, the impact on overseas markets will be huge. Because the status of the steel industry is important, although the US steel industry has declined, there are various restrictions on steel imports, and anti-dumping is frequently launched against Chinese steel products. Once China's steel exports are large, it is expected to encounter more trade disputes. "China's idea of ​​increasing steel production by large-scale exports and finding a way for steel companies is not feasible," Li Xinchuang said.

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