Electricity shortage has led to increased pressure on diesel supply in the market

At the peak of the summer pass, the electricity shortage has spread to many parts of the country, and local governments have taken measures to cut power. It is understood that most of the Zhejiang Province and Hunan Province have adopted power-limiting measures, resulting in a significant increase in diesel power generation demand. Market participants are worried that in the face of high international oil prices and two sides of power-limiting measures, the surge in diesel demand caused by power cuts will further increase domestic diesel supply pressure. Since March, the demand for electricity has been “not weak in the off-season”, and many provinces in the country have experienced the “electricity shortage” in the off-season. Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and other places all showed varying levels of power consumption. Various localities have subsequently adopted power-limiting measures, resulting in companies being forced to purchase diesel power to boost diesel prices. The analyst told the “First Financial Daily” that after the “May 1st” festival, the diesel market was in a tense atmosphere. The two groups controlled the sales pace and shipments of diesel. For example, the price of diesel in Guangdong Petrochemical has been different from the price at the end of last month. 100 yuan / ton. The rest of the country is basically the same. The gasoline and diesel market in East China is tight in diesel and the gasoline is loose. Diesel in North China is still controlled. Therefore, the analyst said that the strategy of diesel sales control in May may be difficult to see and change, and still maintain a tense situation. From the perspective of diesel prices, the price of self-use electricity began to rise sharply in March, and the price rose sharply from 7,700 yuan / ton to more than 8,100 yuan / ton; after entering mid-April, with the tension of electricity everywhere Intensified, diesel prices also showed a straight upward trend, rising from about 8,100 yuan / ton to a high of more than 8,500 yuan / ton, and continued to rise. In addition, according to the "China's first quarter of 2011 national electricity supply and demand and economic operation situation analysis and forecast report" issued by the China Electricity Council (hereinafter referred to as "China Telecom"), this year's peak summer electricity consumption gap of about 30 million kilowatts And in the mid-Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, there may be a large-scale lack of electricity. Therefore, local power cuts will continue for a long time, thus continuing to push diesel prices up. In addition, the high international oil prices and the local power cuts have created a double-sided attack, which has further strained the supply of diesel. Analysts told reporters that the basic reason for diesel shortage is that this year's new refining capacity has decreased, and demand has soared, so the government is also worried about the deterioration of tension. However, while the power cuts increase the demand for diesel in the market, the high international oil prices also make the refining business of the two major groups even less profitable, thus further losing the enthusiasm of refining. The analyst said that the current refinery in the northern refinery will lose about 300 yuan per ton of refined oil, and the southern refinery is already at zero profit or even loss. Therefore, if the international oil price rises by another 10 US dollars per barrel, and the national regulations do not guarantee the refinery's profit of 130 US dollars per barrel, the refinery's enthusiasm will be further hit. A person from the Economic and Technical Research Institute of PetroChina (11.72, 0.01, 0.09%) told this newspaper that the two major groups bear losses every year to protect supply, and the diesel tension is almost normal, but this year international oil prices have been at a high level. Give the refinery more pressure. According to media reports, the two major groups have now proposed to the regulatory authorities to reduce the ex-factory consumption tax to ease the pressure on the refining business at the height of crude oil prices. Under the high price of diesel, the local private refineries, which should have been happy with the increase in demand, are frowning. Liu Aiying, president of the Shandong Refining and Chemical Industry Association, said that there are few refineries in Shandong and the cost is high. At present, some private refineries have been forced to stop operating. It is also known that the gasoline in the northwest refinery can still be shipped normally, but the diesel is also suspended. Analyst Li Li said that the pressure on power cuts and high oil prices will increase the pressure on private retail enterprises, and the price difference between batches and zeros will be gone. The two major groups will also control sales, and some private retail enterprises will inevitably not get oil.  

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