Does the State Council Bless New Energy Portfolio of PV Industry Break Out?

After a long drought on Chunlin, on December 19, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the State Council Executive Meeting to study and determine five measures to promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, including accelerating industrial restructuring and technological progress, and standardizing the order of industrial development. Develop domestic market for photovoltaic applications, improve supporting policies, and fully utilize market mechanisms to reduce government intervention.

In the winter of the photovoltaic industry, this "combination boxing" has been placed in high hopes by the market. However, many interviewed scholars believe that, just as the photovoltaics sector that soared on the day will fall the next day, if the follow-up rules are not introduced as soon as possible, the incentive effect of “top-level design” on the industry will not last long.

Accelerating industry shuffling Even those who know nothing about photovoltaics now know the fact that there is excess capacity in this industry. Where did you go? According to figures from the China Solar Energy Society, the output of solar cells in 2010 was 10.67 GW, which jumped to 21.17 GW in 2011.

"Relevant departments have done calculations, the domestic market consumes a maximum of 10 GW per year. If you add export, then the production scale of China's solar cells will be controlled at the level of 2010." According to the report of the Secretary-General Meng Xianyi on the Times Weekly report, More than half of China's current PV capacity is "surplus."

The data mastered by Solarzoom chief analyst Cai Shuwei shows that as of October 2012, China's PV inventory was as high as 7.47 GW. This requires the global photovoltaic industry to stop production for three months before it can be digested.

"This year, the operating rate of photovoltaic companies in China is only 60%-70%. In the most difficult second quarter, the average operating rate is only 50%." Han Qiming, chief analyst of photovoltaic research organization solarbuzz, told Time Weekly.

Among them, the status of polysilicon companies is the most bleak. Earlier, the China Nonferrous Metals Association Silicon Industry Branch once told the Times Weekly that domestic polysilicon enterprises currently total sixty to seventy, but the operating rate is less than two percent.

Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economics Research Center at Xiamen University, told Time Weekly that this year is not the most difficult time for PV companies. "The possibility of the establishment of the EU's "double reverse" next year is very great. After losing the EU market, the situation in this industry may be even worse."

At the above-mentioned State Council executive meeting, the major issues of the photovoltaic industry were highlighted, summarized as three points: a serious overcapacity, over-reliance on external demand, and general business difficulties. At the same time, the meeting requested that companies be encouraged to merge and reorganize, eliminate backward production capacity, and improve the level of technology and equipment.

In fact, the industry reshuffle has begun. Lin Dashi’s current position is a sales representative of a photovoltaic company in Changshu, Jiangsu Province. After August, he was “half down for two” because the factory was half-stopped. On December 21, Lin Dashi, who was interviewed, said, “****, the leader (refers to Shi Zhengrong, the chief executive of Wuxi Suntech) ran early, and many companies that could not buy the tickets had died without seeing the end of the day. ."

Solarbuzz believes that in the next five years, the number of Chinese solar cell manufacturers will be reduced from about 400 in 2011 to less than 100, of which the top 20 companies will contribute more than 60% of the battery output.

“Overcapacity is one of the outstanding contradictions at present, and a considerable part of this is the backward production capacity. For example, in Jiangsu area, the production cost of some polysilicon enterprises reaches more than 80 US dollars per kilogram, while the normal market price is only 20 US dollars. In the market competition, such capacity is destined to be eliminated.” Meng Xianjun told Time Weekly that the central government hopes that the entire industry can abandon the past model of relying solely on economies of scale and low prices, and instead rely on technological progress and innovation.

Distributed photovoltaic power generation in spring?

In addition to using the market force mechanism, another way to “digest” production capacity is to open up downstream markets. The above meeting pointed out that it is necessary to focus on promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation, encouraging units, communities and families to install and use photovoltaic power generation systems, and to promote the construction of photovoltaic power plants in an orderly manner.

The so-called distributed photovoltaic power generation means a small-scale power generation mode that focuses on self-use. In Germany, photovoltaic power generation accounts for 4% of electricity use. Among them, distributed generation photovoltaic installations account for more than 50% of the total. Many residents have installed photovoltaic power plants on their roofs and sell the remaining power to the grid companies. .

In China, Zhao Chunjiang, director of the Institute of Solar Energy Research at the Shanghai Institute of Electric Power, is the first person in the family of photovoltaic power generation. In 2006, he built a 3-kilowatt photovoltaic power system on his home roof. Since then, he has also started a “solar supermarket” to promote home photovoltaic power generation.

However, the supermarket was closed shortly afterwards. The reason was that the cost of home photovoltaic power generation was too high. For example, Zhao Chunjiang’s home power plant had a cost of 150,000 at that time, that is, 1,000 watts of 50,000 yuan. At present, although the cost of hardware has dropped significantly, it is still at the level of 1,000 watts and 10,000 yuan.

“In the eastern region, for example, the current cost of photovoltaic power generation is about 7 cents per degree, while the industrial and commercial electricity price is more than 1 yuan per degree. Therefore, the unit power plants and community power plants have the same conditions for access to the electricity, and the residential electricity price is now at an average of 5 There is still a gap of 40% between gross/degree and the cost of photovoltaic power generation. Therefore, this requires the government's financial subsidy, said Han Qiming.

In fact, the above-mentioned executive meeting of the State Council has pointed out in principle that the sub-regional benchmark price for photovoltaic power stations will be established according to resource conditions, and the subsidy policy for subsidized electricity generation will be implemented for distributed photovoltaic power generation, and the subsidized electricity tariffs and subsidy standards will be reasonably reduced according to changes in costs. . At present, the details of the subsidy have not yet been issued, and many people interviewed in the industry frankly told Time Weekly that they are very concerned about the magnitude and cycle of subsidies.

“If the standard is set lower, market enthusiasm will be difficult to mobilize, and if it is too high, everyone will be able to make a leap forward. It will also be a big burden for the government.” Han Qiming believes that if the government finances can produce 10 billion - With 200 billion funds, this policy can be effectively implemented.

“Goldsun projects have long enjoyed a substantial financial subsidy, and now, as long as this part of the funds can be diverted to distributed generation, but behind the Golden Sun project involves stakeholders, which has increased the policy shift The difficulty," said Han Qiming.

According to the Times Weekly, at present, the gross profit of photovoltaic module companies is generally below 10%, while the construction and operation of photovoltaic power plants has 10% to 30% of the profit margin. At the same time, the New Deal has explicitly proposed to change the VAT of photovoltaic power generation from 17% to 8.5%, which means that the investment return rate of photovoltaic power plant projects will increase by a certain margin.

As a result of such guidance, will all localities welcome power station projects? "The so-called overcapacity mainly refers to photovoltaic equipment, and in the terminal market, photovoltaic power generation has a lot of room for development. Without large-scale subsidies, if companies are willing to participate, this is a good thing," Lin Boqiang said.

Meng Xianyi believes that at present, the issue of market capacity should be studied first. After all, this is directly related to government subsidies. If the market is expanded too much, then the problem of past subsidy arrears will occur in the future.

National PV company?

In the New Photovoltaic Government, another point that made the market quite excited is the expression “reducing government intervention and prohibiting local protection”.

"The problem of overcapacity in the equipment sector is that the relatively large problems lie in the excessive support of local governments and state-owned banks in the past." Lin Boqiang believes that in the process of industrial integration in the future, similar problems may still occur, leading to the nationalization of photovoltaic companies.

“When the industry reshuffles, the greatest loss may be local government, because once the local large-scale enterprises or even a large number of enterprises fail, their early investment, the state-owned banks’ corruption, and local employment will all suffer. Therefore, the local government is likely to Become a marketer for these companies."

“The ideal situation is that with the help of the government, other private enterprises take over, but the nationalization situation is likely to occur. Therefore, at the beginning of the integration, local governments must think about exit mechanisms and how to hand them over.” Lin Boqiang said .

Meng Xianjun recently visited places such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang. He told the Times that some local governments are still actively developing the photovoltaic industry. The situation of nationalization does exist.

"The market mechanism is a key factor in determining whether an enterprise can survive. Or is it taking the example of polysilicon of 80 U.S. dollars per kilogram. If local governments must support such enterprises, they are willing to continue blood transfusions. This is their business, but I dare say that there are more than 80 The polysilicon of the US dollar must not be sold, and such a government cannot explain it to the society,” said Meng Xianjun.

However, some people in the industry pointed out to Times Weekly that this round of reshuffle will mainly be the second and third line SMEs. For local governments, there is insufficient incentive for nationalization.

According to Lin Boqiang's expectation, after this round of the New Deal is put in place, the ideal situation will be that 60% of current production capacity will be preserved and 40% will be eliminated. "In the future, we cannot rely entirely on the domestic market, but it is better to be 60% domestic and 40% foreign."

Han Qiming believes that the effect of the new photovoltaic government to save the city is closely related to the follow-up regulations. "If the rules for distributed generation were quickly put in place in the first half of next year, and the government is willing to spend 10 billion to 20 billion yuan to subsidize it, then quite a few companies will consider investing in power plants in the eastern and central regions. This brings about The increase in the photovoltaic market is considerable, and the problem of overcapacity in photovoltaic manufacturing will also be largely resolved.”