Construction Information (07.05): Copper and Aluminum

Jianxun Information (07.05): Copper and aluminum recently added a "Risk Warning" column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, for investors to use when referencing open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆☆☆ The reverse run range of the newer closing price may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run rate of the newer closing price may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The new closing reverse run may be greater than 5% Risk Warning: Bulls risk: ☆ Short risk: ☆ ☆ Front plate hint: Orient: LME copper and aluminum wide oscillation last week, LME March copper closed at 2,680 US dollars / ton, up 25 US dollars The fluctuation range is 2702~2565 USD/ton. LME March aluminum closed at $1715.5/ton, down $13.5, with a range of $1,738-1,686/ton. LME copper stocks fell by 5,600 tons in the week, and the stock was 102,000 tons. LME aluminum stocks fell by 16,100 tons throughout the week, with a stock of 937,100 tons. The SSE’s copper inventories decreased by 15,989 tons, with a stock of 54,000 tons; aluminum inventories decreased by 9,500 tons and stocks were 137,700 tons. Last week, LME copper shocks rose in March. This week, the Fed is expecting a 25 basis point hike in the market. Strong consumer confidence and lower-than-expected job numbers, and US factory After the suppression of Yang, wide swing, affected by the LME copper prices also oscillated repeatedly. Collahuasi copper mine in Chile and Asarco’s labor and capital cooperation between the two parties on the strike are still in progress and will have some impact on the market. However, there is a greater possibility of settlement through negotiations. Even if the strike, the overall supply and demand will not have much impact. . Last week, it was reported that the processing costs for Chinese buyers of copper concentrates have risen sharply to US$67/ton again, indicating that the shortage of copper concentrates is easing, and the supply of medium-term copper may increase, but in the short term due to the current copper inventory. The continuous decrease momentum is still continuing, and the possibility of the internal LME copper price continuing to oscillate and rebound is greater. On the domestic front, we should focus our attention on the fact that after China's sharp reduction in copper imports in May, the reduction in inventories and the resumption of imports will increase the ratio of domestic spot copper to LME March copper, which means that domestic copper will remain relatively LME copper. Strong. After entering the second half of the year, the negative impact of domestic macro-control on the market will gradually reflect this factor and deserve our attention. In summary, copper prices may still oscillate and rebound in the short term, but the upside will also be relatively limited. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price was higher in Friday's trading due to the sharp decline in the US dollar, and 2700 is still a major pressure level. The downturn in US employment data has led investors to lower expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates, but also for the US economy. The outlook remains vigilant, and the Dow Jones index has suffered a broken position. The continued downward trend of the stock market will further restrict investors’ enthusiasm for buying in the copper market. The Asarco strike will become a good time for short selling. Technically, the pressure on copper prices is located at 2700, 2720, and 2750, respectively, and there is less likelihood that the price of copper will break through 2750 in the absence of substantial bullish factors. It is recommended that investors continue to think short-selling. Shanghai CUCU is expected to test the 25300 line pressure level on Monday, with further pressure at 25,500. If the price formation is significantly higher and lower, it will indicate that the copper price will appear poiseously lower in subsequent transactions. Short Stop Loss is set at 25500. Daily commentary: He Haihai: London's basic metals were mixed on Thursday. Copper and lead showed strong performance. The March closing price of copper was USD 2690/ton. The spot premium was enlarged to 49.5/59.5 USD/ton, and the inventories dropped to 100.15 million tons. Today, the price of Shanghai copper fell rapidly after opening higher, and the market fell rapidly. After the price opened higher, a large number of active sell-offs and long positions that triggered the sensation triggered a rapid decline in the market. Market turnover was moderately magnified. The data released on Thursday was more general. In June, the ISM manufacturing index fell from 62.8 to 61.1, but it was more consistent with expectations and indicated that the economy is still in a better expansion; the US Department of Commerce reported that the monthly rate of US construction spending in May It rose by 0.3% to an annual rate of 988.5 billion U.S. dollars, recording a higher level. In April, the increase was 1.2%. According to the report, due to the increase in start-ups of new housing projects, the US construction spending in May increased to a higher level in history. A trade union leader at the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile said on Thursday that after the company asked the Chilean government to intervene, the union workers canceled the strike plan. The government intervention will extend the contract negotiation by five days. The strike is still an uncertain factor; the position structure from London copper From the perspective, there is currently no unilateral price that has risen or fallen sharply. On Friday, the United States announced that the non-agricultural employment population, closer to the impact of this indicator on the exchange rate of the dollar greater for the market outlook, the London copper price can not effectively stand firm in the short term 60-day moving average will have a significant callback pressure on the market. The exchange rate market seems to lose its direction after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, prices oscillate, and the latter trend is not clear. Operational Advice: Short-term operation of overseas express delivery on the same day: LME Market Report: London, July 2 News: Friday, the majority of base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) regained early losses on Friday, analysts and traders said that the United States The non-agricultural employment data was weaker than expected. The weaker US dollar boosted the market. Earlier, market sentiment was sluggish, but after the U.S. Department of Labor announced that non-agricultural employment in June only increased by 112,000, less than analysts expected an increase of 250,000. With the US dollar under pressure, the LME market sentiment rebounded. A trader said that after the bleak employment data came out, the market conditions of the LME improved significantly. SempraEconomist analyst Kemp said in a research report: “U.S. non-agricultural employment population is growing moderately. For those who believe that the economic recovery is still too fragile to be able to sustain a sharp rate hike, and that there is still a need to continue to implement loose monetary policies, provide a temporary argument. "The dollar has dominated the market," said another trader. "The LME market fell earlier, but after the US announced the non-farm payrolls data, the dollar fell. People think that the attractiveness of base metals will increase again," said the trader. The dollar/yen falls At 108.14 yen, it had risen earlier. In mid-morning, the euro/dollar gained 1% to $1.2286. Trading was light on the day, as the US public holiday next Monday, the US financial market will be closed. Today's New York Mercantile Exchange ( COMEX) copper futures will close earlier. Three-month copper futures closed at US$2,679.00, down US$9. Three-month aluminum futures closed unchanged at US$1,716. All other varieties closed higher. Analysts said that LME’s three-month copper still faces strong resistance at $2,700. Intraday test this price, but failed to break through. Traders believe that the decline in copper futures is limited due to unresolved labor disputes between the United States and Chile’s copper mines, and that LME copper inventories will fall below 100,000 tons next week, which will be For the first time since November 1996, the Collahuasi copper miner’s strike in Chile was postponed for 5 working days due to local government involvement in its labor negotiations. The copper mine is expected to reach output of 460,000 tons in 2004 and 039,000 tons in 2003. In addition, Asorco, the US subsidiary of the Mexican mining giant Grupo Mexico, is still in stalemate. Analysts, three-month aluminum closed flat, with three-month nickel closing slightly higher, as Chilean copper mine aluminum and nickel futures were supported by the weaker US dollar to escape the intraday low. The three-month nickel was held back by the spot supply, and may continue to test the resistance at $850. Zinc closed slightly higher but failed to break through the $1,000 resistance. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, July 2: News that the US’s non-agricultural employment data released in June fell sharply below expectations, dragged the US dollar down sharply against major currencies, supporting the upside of the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) senior copper futures. However, copper futures gains were also limited by lower-than-expected figures, which ended mixed and the market closed ahead of schedule due to the Independence Day holiday. Traders said that both Chilean and US copper miners have postponed their strikes and the copper gains have been limited. Traders said The US dollar fell due to the weak US non-agricultural employment data and provided support for copper prices. An insider-operated company stated that “the long weekend is approaching and many people do not want to hold positions. This is a market practice.” Traders are Waiting for news of labor disputes between the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile and the Asarco copper mine in the United States in the past few days, we will wait and see if this will lead to a strike. On Friday, the labor and capital sides are still negotiating. September copper futures closed at $1.2200/lb, down 0.2 cents from the London Metal Exchange. (LME) Three-month copper was postponed by the strike in Chile's Callahuasi copper mine for five days and news of a strike by the American subsidiary Asorco of the Mexican mining giant GrupoMéicos rose to the CO At the beginning of MEX, the US non-agricultural employment in the United States rose by 112,000 in June, after economists expected the figure to increase by 250,000. Although the US unemployment rate in June was unchanged at 5.6% in May, it was significantly lower than expected. Non-agricultural employment growth data suppressed the rapid decline of the US dollar against major currencies, and the price of copper rose. As of COMEX's close, the euro traded at 1.2310 against the US dollar, up 150 points from 1.2160 late in New York overnight, and the US dollar index also dropped by 0.71 to 88.08. The lower US dollar has caused a relative decline in the dollar-denominated base metal price, which has stimulated non-US The purchase of capital account purchases boosted copper prices, but due to the lower-than-expected data, it also showed that the limited US economic growth also limited the demand for metals, resulting in the failure of copper prices to break through the volatility on the 1st. Analysts expect that the initial resistance for the COMEX copper September contract will be at $1.2340/lb, if it rises above this level, the next yuan/lb. 2LME copper stocks fell by 1,200 metric tons to 100,275 metric tons, and COMEX copper stocks fell by 1,038 short to 94,044 short tons on the 1st. The market was closed on Monday to commemorate the Independence Day and will resume trading on Tuesday. From a fundamental point of view, concerns about the copper mine strike weakened, which put pressure on futures prices. However, the rapid decline in global warehouse inventory is a positive for the long-term. ☆News closing distance The reverse running range may be less than 2%. ☆☆ The price range may be greater than 2% in the reverse direction of the newer closing.

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