A comprehensive and objective understanding of some changes in economic operational data

Since July, although the economic operation has fluctuated, the positive factors are also accumulating. The growth rate of most traditional industries has declined. The emerging industries and high-tech industries continue to maintain rapid development. The investment structure of the manufacturing industry is continuously optimized, and consumption continues to grow steadily. . Therefore, the changes in operational data should be analyzed and understood comprehensively and objectively.

From the perspective of industrial production, the decline in industrial growth is mainly due to the decline in industries such as automobiles and steel. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6% year-on-year. After a slight rebound for three consecutive months, it fell again. The growth rate of machinery, petroleum, petrochemical and metallurgical industries was down by 2.5, 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively. The decline of the machinery industry was mainly caused by the negative growth of the automobile industry. In July, the added value of the automobile industry decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 8.4 percentage points from the previous month. As a result, the growth rate of all industries above designated size dropped by 0.43 percentage points from the previous month. However, some industries in the raw materials sector maintained rapid growth. For example, the non-ferrous metals industry grew by 11.6% year-on-year in July. The growth rate was among the highest in all major industrial sectors, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of industrial internal structure, high-tech and consumer-related industries still maintain rapid growth. The growth rate of value-added of high-tech industries accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in July, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The electronics and pharmaceutical industries maintained rapid growth. The value added for the month increased by 9.4% and 10.2% respectively, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 and 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. In the electronics industry, communications equipment, radar and ancillary equipment increased by 15.5% and 12.8% respectively, and electronic device manufacturing increased by 13.1%. The high-end equipment manufacturing industry in the machinery industry continued to grow rapidly. The added value of aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing increased by 34.6%, and urban rail transit equipment manufacturing increased by 19.7%. The growth rate of agricultural and sideline food processing, beverage, papermaking and other industries in the light industry has also increased by 0.3, 0.9 and 1.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month.

From the perspective of industrial product structure, products that conform to the direction of industrial upgrading have grown rapidly, and most of the basic raw material products have continued to decline. In July, the output of new energy vehicles increased more than three times, the output of SUVs increased by 32.9%, the output of EMUs, smart TVs and smart phones increased by 104.7%, 47.1% and 31.7%, respectively, photovoltaic cells increased by 21.7%, and optoelectronic devices increased by 21.5%. Large tractors grew by 50% and harvesting machinery by 12.6%. Large-capacity pumped storage units and high-end hydraulic parts have made breakthroughs in independent innovation, and orders from domestic enterprises have increased substantially. The production of high-grade copper processing products, aluminum for transportation and new non-ferrous metals with higher added value maintained rapid growth. At the same time, crude steel output was 4.6% year-on-year, and average daily production fell by 7.6% from the previous month, the lowest level since November last year. Cement production decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, and average daily output decreased by 5.8% from the previous month; flat glass production decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, and average daily output decreased by 14.8% from the previous month. The output of excavating earthmoving machinery and concrete machinery decreased by 17.1% and 9.5% respectively year-on-year; the output of metal smelting equipment, rolling equipment and mine special equipment also continued to decline.

From the perspective of manufacturing investment structure, investment in structural upgrading and consumption has grown rapidly, and investment in some traditional industries has continued to decline. Enterprises have generally increased the intensity of technological transformation and transformation and upgrading, and investment growth is shifting from scale expansion to focus on connotation development. From January to July, the national industrial technology transformation investment increased by 12.9% year-on-year, 3.9 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all industrial investment; industrial technology transformation investment accounted for 36.2% of total industrial investment, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. The Machinery Federation reflected that the machinery industry transformation and technological transformation investment in the first half of the year increased by 22.6% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of machinery industry investment by 13 percentage points. Investment in railway transportation equipment, transmission and distribution and control equipment, professional instrumentation, special chemicals, fine chemicals and other industries maintained rapid growth. At the same time, industry investment related to end consumer demand has grown rapidly. From January to July, the investment growth rate of textile and apparel, sports and entertainment products manufacturing industry was above 20%, reflecting the confidence of enterprises in consumer goods-related industries. The investment growth rate of high energy-consuming industries continued to slow down. From January to July, the investment in the six high-energy-consuming industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points lower than that in January-June, and 2.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate of industrial investment. Among them, investment in iron and steel smelting and rolling processing industry and petroleum processing industry decreased by 12.3% and 15.6% respectively, and investment in cement and flat glass manufacturing continued to decline.

From the perspective of consumption structure, the growth rate of consumer retail sales continued to maintain steady growth, and sales of emerging formats and consumption upgraded goods were good. In July, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10.5% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of basic living commodities has accelerated. The retail sales of grain, oil, food, beverages, tobacco and alcohol products above designated size increased by 16.7%, 17.3% and 15.6% respectively, and the growth rate increased by 2, 0.4 and 3.5 from the previous month. Percentage points; clothing and daily necessities increased by 10.2% and 10.8%, respectively, an increase of 0.8 and 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Sales of consumer upgraded goods continued to grow rapidly. In July, the retail sales of communication equipment above designated size increased by 29.8%; the retail sales of sports and entertainment products increased by 19.3%, up by 6 percentage points from the previous month. From January to July, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 37% year-on-year, accounting for 9.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods. In addition, the growth rate of catering revenue has also accelerated. In July, catering revenue increased by 12.2% year-on-year, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the catering rate of units above designated size increased by 1.2 percentage points.

From the perspective of electricity consumption structure, the electricity consumption of the service industry has maintained a rapid growth. The year-on-year decline in industrial electricity consumption is mainly caused by the decline of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and building materials. In July, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, of which information transmission, computer services and software industry increased by 10.8%, continuing the rapid growth momentum this year; wholesale and retail, education, culture and entertainment, real estate use They increased by 4.5%, 7.4% and 3.5% respectively. However, industrial electricity consumption fell by 3.3% year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption of the two industries of steel and building materials decreased by 12.4% and 8.5% respectively, which contributed 2.3 percentage points to the decline in industrial electricity consumption in the month and 70% to the negative growth of industrial electricity consumption. The decline in electricity consumption for steel and building materials was also the main reason for the decline in electricity consumption in the whole society in July. Both of them reduced the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society by 1.7 percentage points in July, and the impact on the negative growth of electricity consumption in the whole society reached 129%.

From the perspective of freight volume, the growth rate of road and waterway transportation has maintained growth, railway freight transportation has been at a low level and the transportation structure has been continuously optimized. In July, the freight volume of road and water transportation increased by 5.7% and 4.9% respectively, and the growth rate increased by 0.6 and 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. Railway freight volume decreased by 10.9% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Recently, the average daily loading of railways in the country is stable at around 140,000 vehicles, among which the transportation demand for bulk materials such as coal, steel and oil is stable at a low level; railways have scattered shipments, bulk cargo and container transportation have maintained rapid growth, and containers are loaded daily in July. The chain increased by 5.8%, and the average daily volume of scattered goods increased by 18%. In line with the national “One Belt, One Road” strategy, the Railway Corporation actively organized the international railway cargo transportation. In the first seven months, the China-European trains accumulated a total of 317 trains, a year-on-year increase of 2.3 times.

In addition, the stamina of investment growth has also increased. From January to July, the total investment growth rate of newly started projects was 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the first half of the year. The total investment growth rate of construction projects was increased by 0.5 percentage points, and the growth rate of funds in place increased by 0.5 percentage points. The real estate market continues to pick up. From January to July, the sales area and sales of commercial housing in the country increased by 6.1% and 13.4% respectively, up by 2.2 and 3.4 percentage points over the first half of the year. Driven by factors such as the recovery of the real estate market, the steel price index rebounded for four consecutive weeks in mid-July. The average price of rebar in the national market rose from 2023 yuan/ton on July 10 to 2265 yuan/ton on August 19, an increase of 12%. Power generation has also increased since August. In mid-August and early August, the cumulative power generation of dispatched power generation increased by nearly 4%.

In general, the economic structure under the new normal is undergoing profound changes. The traditional industries and emerging industries are changing, and the new and old growth drivers are gradually changing, which has become an important feature of economic operation. We need to analyze the new changes in economic data from multiple angles, grasp the law of economic operation, and objectively and comprehensively understand the economic situation and promote the steady and healthy development of the economy.

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